Only the Cincinnati Bengals remain without a win in the NFL, and their odds are long against the Baltimore Ravens this week. The good news for Bengals fans, however, is that they’re not the longest. That honor(?) goes to the low-flying Atlanta Falcons who take on the New Orleans Saints in a battle of first vs. last in the NFC South.

Longest Odds

The one-win Atlanta Falcons (1-7) travel to New Orleans this Sunday to take on the 7-1 Saints. The Falcons are winless on the road, losing to the Cardinals, Texans, Colts, and Vikings. At home, the Falcons lost to the Rams, Seahawks, and Titans. Their one win came in Week 2, when they slipped by the wingless Eagles, 24-20.

The Saints season is a mirror opposite of the Falcons. New Orleans lost in Week 2 to the Rams. They also lost quarterback Drew Brees in that game. Back-up Teddy Bridgewater then led the Saints to five straight victories before Brees returned last week. The Saints not only survived the injury to their future hall of famer, they thrived. At 7-1, they hold a two-game division edge over the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the Falcons are mired in the NFC South basement.

All of this adds up to this week’s longest odds:

Atlanta Falcons      +480
New Orleans Saints -660

For spread bettors, the line opened at -11.5 for the Saints. Expect the line to move longer as we get closer to Sunday because the Falcons are that bad, Drew Brees is back, and the Saints are at home.

Shortest Odds

The short-odds game this week is a puzzle for oddsmakers and gamblers alike. It’s the LA Chargers traveling to the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night. Are the Chargers going to show up as the team that beat the Green Bay Packers last week, or will the other bumbling, stumbling Chargers team show up? The Chargers are hard to predict this season. The Raiders aren’t much better at playing a consistent game.

The Chargers are 4-5, while the Raiders are 4-4. Everything about this game shouts pick ’em, so the odds are really short.

Oakland Raiders  +102
LA Chargers     -120

The point spread opened with the Chargers as a 1.5-point underdog, but they’ve been bet to a 1-point favorite. Short, short odds on this one, no matter how the bets go down.

New York, New York

Another game to watch, if you’re a masochist, is the New York Jets at home again the New York Giants who are also, technically, at home since they share custody of MetLife stadium. As such, home-field advantage means nothing, except for who gets to call the coin flip. The Jets are 1-7, and lost to Miami last week. Repeat, they lost to Miami. The Giants are 2-7 after losing to the Cowboys on Monday night. Even an average performance against the Dolphins would have made the Jets a favorite this week, and perhaps, saved head coach Adam Gase his job, which is close to being history. Even so, the game is still nearly even.

New York Jets  +114
New York Giants  -133

The point spread opened with the Giants a 2.5-point favorite. The over/under is 43.5. It’s hard to predict if this will be an offensive or a defensive game, but the early betting is on the over.

odds source: USA Today SportsBookWire

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The Big 12 conference was ready to send a representative to the College Football Playoffs this season. Unfortunately, Oklahoma was tagged as that team, and they got upset two weeks ago by Kansas State, 48-41. Even with that loss, Oklahoma remains ranked at #9, while undefeated Baylor, which is currently the #1 ranked team in the Big 12, is slotted at  #11. The teams play each other in two weeks.

Before Oklahoma Comes TCU

Baylor can’t look ahead to Oklahoma — not with TCU up this weekend. The TCU Horned Frogs are 4-4 overall, and 2-3 in the conference. The Baylor Bears are 8-0 and 5-0. Yet, the game opened with Baylor only a 1.5-point favorite. Even with a #11 national ranking, it appears that no one believes the Bears are for real. The pollsters and oddsmakers are just waiting for the Baylor bomb to drop. If not this week, then certainly the following Saturday against Oklahoma.

Both Baylor and TCU are average against the spread. Baylor is 4-4 ATS in 2019, while TCU is 3-5. The over/under stats aren’t much better, with Baylor at 4-4 again, and TCU at 5-3.The over/under in Saturday’s matchup is set at 51. While this may seem like a game to lay off, there is one stat that points to decent wager. In the last 10 games between these two teams, TCU is 8-2 against the spread.

Why 13-0 Can’t Crack the College Football Playoff

To get to 13-0, Baylor must take down TCU, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Accomplish that, and Baylor gets a place in the Big 12 championship and a probable repeat performance against Oklahoma. That would mean Baylor’s strongest opponent this season would be the Oklahoma Sooners, a team they would’ve beaten just four weeks earlier.

In the AP Top 25 above the Bears right now are the perennial playoffs teams: Alabama, Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State. Those four are all undefeated. Also up there are Penn State (8-0), and one-loss Georgia, Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma. Even two-loss Florida holds a place one slot above the Bears.

That’s a steep ladder to climb. It’s not impossible, mind you, but the best odds on a Baylor appearance in the College Football Playoffs are set at 100/1 by VegasInsider. Other sportsbooks have the odds as high as 350/1.

The weak non-conference schedule and the below average Big 12 conference probably adds up to a Cotton Bowl appearance for Baylor. Not bad for a Texas-based team, but not the CFP either. Baylor would do well to shore up their non-conference schedule if they want to avoid the Big 12 stigma of “if you ain’t Oklahoma, you don’t make it to the big show.”

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Minnesota has been oh-so-slowly creeping up the rankings because they’ve played a weak schedule, and because they didn’t really find their offensive stride until nearly mid-season. But, as the saying goes: You play who’s in front of you. Eight teams have faced the Golden Gophers this season, and none have taken them down.

Penn State Favored by Oddsmakers

It’s East versus West this Saturday when 8-0 Penn State plays 8-0 Minnesota. No preseason poll had Minnesota even close to being in the running to win the Big Ten’s West Division. This Saturday, the Golden Gophers could take a huge step toward their first Big Ten title since 1967, and even that was a three-way tie. The last outright Big Ten championship for Minnesota was in 1941.

This week, Penn State opened as a solid 7-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Early betting odds haven’t shifted the point spread, but it appears the over might be too low, depending on the weather. The game will be played outside at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The weather is forecast to be in the low to mid-30s with snow showers expected. With both teams’ offenses in high gear, it might take a blizzard to hold down the score.

How Minnesota Got to 8-0

So far, this has been a tale of two seasons for the Golden Gophers. They opened with four wins against weak opponents. They beat both Fresno State and Georgia Southern by three points, and scored victories over South Dakota State and Purdue by a touchdown each.

The Purdue win seemed to confirm the preseason predictions that Purdue and Minnesota would finish fourth and fifth in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska were picked as the top three in the West, but then something happened… Minnesota found their offense.

In weeks five through eight, the Golden Gophers beat Big Ten rivals Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland by 23, 27, 35, and 42 points respectively. Suddenly, the Gophers were the team to beat.

How Do Golden Gophers Win the West?

Whether or not Minnesota can beat Penn State, they have an inside track to win the Big Ten Western division, and to play in the championship game. Iowa and Wisconsin are still ahead for Minnesota, and both of those teams already have two conference losses. If Minnesota has even a glimmer of hope of making it out of the Big Ten and into the College Football Playoffs, they must win out starting Saturday with Penn State.

Caesars Sportsbook gives an undefeated Minnesota team only a 37% chance to make the CFP, but a win over undefeated Penn State this week should get Minnesota into the AP Top Ten. Couple that with a championship game victory in December over an undefeated and potentially #1 ranked Ohio State, and Minnesota could be the Cinderella story of this football year.

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Unlike some states considering legal sports betting, Colorado already has casino gambling and a gaming commission to oversee the addition of new betting options. If it passes, Proposition DD authorizes the commission to write new rules allowing the state’s 33 current casino licensees to accept sports bet. Officials would have until May 2020 to complete the regulations.

Text of Proposition DD

“Shall state taxes be increased by twenty-nine million dollars annually to fund state water projects and commitments and to pay for the regulation of sports betting through licensed casinos by authorizing a tax on sports betting of ten percent of net sports betting proceeds, and to impose the tax on persons licensed to conduct sports betting?” (Colorado House Bill 1327)

The Colorado Taxpayer Bill of Rights requires the words “shall taxes be increased” on all voter referendums that call for new taxes. Despite the fact that the 10 percent tax will be levied on the proceeds of the casinos not on the citizens.

Proponents of the bill contend that while the phrasing is unfortunate, enough voter education has been done to assure passage of the proposition.

Where to Bet on Sports in Colorado

There are currently 33 casinos in Colorado, located in three mountain towns — Black Hawk, Central City, and Cripple Creek. All of these facilities will be able to offer sports betting possibly as soon as late summer or early fall of 2020.

Expansion beyond those casinos is unlikely. A vote in 2014 to expand gambling beyond those three destinations failed by more than 70 percent, which is why proposition DD establishes sports betting only in those current casino jurisdictions.

Proposition DD would authorize casinos to offer both online sports betting and mobile app gaming options. There are already phone apps available in the state in anticipation of sports betting approval.

“I have the apps already downloaded on my phone,” Democratic House Leader Alec Garnett told the Denver Post. Garnett co-sponsored the bill referring the question of sports betting to the voters.

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The reasons for player sleep deprivation are obvious. In a given season, the average player flies anywhere between 1,800 and 7,000 miles each week, and plays as many as three back-to-back games that can last deep into the night. Putting that in perspective, ESPN notes that, on average, NBA players travel “50,000 miles per season — roughly 20,000 more miles each season than NFL teams, and far enough to circle the globe twice.”

Over the course of an 82-game regular season, and perhaps, another dozen or so playoff games, the fatigue adds up, and players break down.

NBA Schedule Shifts to Minimize Sleep Deprivation

The league has taken some steps to lessen sleep deprivation for the players, coaches and traveling staff. Over the last five seasons, back-to-back games have been reduced. Scheduling four games in five days is a thing of the past. This year, the league even started the season a week early to add seven more days off.

But, the realities of playing so many games in so short at period of time means players will inevitably struggle to reach optimal levels of sleep. You can’t get seven or eight hours of rest when you aren’t even in your hotel room for six hours.

Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris has taken up the more-sleep soapbox. He told ESPN that despite the ribbing he receives from teammates over his “bedtime,” he believes, “In a couple years [sleep deprivation] will be an issue that’s talked about, like the NFL with concussions.”

For most people, not just athletes, naps aren’t enough to counteract to the effects of sleep deprivation — you need to sleep long stretches of at least seven hours to reap the benefits of quality rest we all need every day.

Playing a game which drenches the body in cortisol to stay alert and awake, and then trying to sleep in a hotel or on a plane is insane. Cortisol has the exact opposite effect in the body of the brain chemistry needed to fall asleep. Normally, an individual engaged in a strenuous activity like high-level sports should have two or three hours of down time before attempting to fall asleep. A plane trip or a bus ride with dozens of others players and staff does not provide that needed down time.

To be clear, studies show that the problem is not too many games or playing too many minutes. The issue is too much travel across too many time zones over the course of an 82-game schedule.

West Coast Teams at Bigger Disadvantage?

The East-to-West trips are not as harmful to sleep patterns as the West to East journeys.

The human body holds to a circadian rhythm based on the seasons and the rising sun. Scientists have known for years that shift workers experience sleep problems when trying to adjust a sleep pattern to a cycle that doesn’t sync with the rising and setting sun. Travel across time zones only adds to these problems.

“There’s not a factory on the planet that would move shift workers the way we move NBA players,” Timothy Royer told ESPN. Royer is clinical neuropsychologist with Neuropeak Pro, a controversial company that specializes in brain performance and athletic recovery. He spent three years with the Orlando Magic, where he observed the rigors of their schedule and began developing his theories about sleep deprivation in the NBA.

Imagine playing a Sunday evening game in San Francisco. Monday is an off day and a travel day to New York for a Tuesday game. The full day off to travel is a good start, however, the math doesn’t work for the west-to-east players. The plane leaves SF on Monday at noon and arrives in NY four hours later not at 4 pm, but at 7 pm East Coast time. The players’ body clocks say it is afternoon, the NY clocks say evening. So when the players are ready to sleep is it 10 pm or 7 pm?

You can’t make up for jet lag by sleeping more or waking up at the correct East Coast time. The body needs time to adjust. But the Tuesday game in NY is followed by Thursday in Detroit, and Saturday night in Denver.

The problem isn’t as severe when traveling east to west. Studies have shown we all experience less circadian disruption when we travel east to west. So for the players on West Coast teams, they have more sleep disruption issues to cope with during the season than do East Coast players. And yes, players in the Central and Mountain time zones have even fewer adjustments, as their road trips are easier to schedule and they don’t travel through as many time zones than do their counterparts on in the east and west.

Health Effects of Sleep Deprivation

Even for some of the world’s top athletes, the ramifications of sleep deprivation can pose serious health concerns and create long-lasting problems. Some of the most common side effects of sleep deprivation include:

• Memory Issues – particularly short-term memory; like who you’re guarding or what play is being run
• Concentration – focus and serial processing are early losses to a sleep-deprived player
• Accidents – injuries have been shown to rise in the workplace because of lack of sleep
• Weight Gain – the body craves energy lost to lack of sleep; sugar is an immediate source of energy and eventually weight gain
• Balance & Coordination – critical to athletic performance, these physical effects can arise after a single night of lost sleep
• Lowered Testosterone Level – testosterone is critical to muscle building and strength maintenance. Studies have shown that lowered levels of testosterone lead to increased injuries in the work place.

Recent studies have followed NBA players for a full season and found that, on average, their levels of testosterone fall as the season wears on. For some players the numbers reach levels that would require supplemental medication if they were being treated by a physician.

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In a loaded conference like the Big Ten, the season-long strategy is survival. Last year, Ohio State was headed for the College Football Playoff when they got crushed 49-20 by 6-7 Purdue. This week it was Wisconsin’s turn to see their postseason dreams get crushed. It took a field goal on the final play of the game, but the result was the same — another Big Ten title contender knocked out of the race by a huge underdog.

The Badgers were favored by 29 points, but the final score was 24-23 and Wisconsin plummeted out of the AP Top Ten.

Penn State May Be Ohio State’s Last Hurdle

Penn State did what they needed to do taking down Michigan 28-21. After building a 21 point lead early, the Nittany Lions had to holdoff a resurgent Wolverine squad in the final minutes to hold onto their undefeated record and move up to #6 in the national polls.

Only Penn State and Ohio State remain as undefeateds in the Big Ten. They will meet on November 23 in Columbus. Until then both teams have to avoid looking too far ahead. Neither the Nittany Lions nor the Buckeyes have particularly hard schedules until their heads-up clash. There is one exception on the Penn State schedule that would be undefeated Minnesota.

No one quite knows what to make of the Golden Gophers, they have played an incredibly soft schedule up until now. Still 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten cannot be overlooked. Penn State will travel to Minnesota on Nov. 9.

Big Ten Week This Week

Saturday, October 26

Maryland @ #17 Minnesota -17
Illinois @ Purdue -8 
Liberty -7.5 @ Rutgers 
Indiana @ Nebraska -1 
#6 Penn State -6.5 @ Michigan State 
#8 Notre Dame @ #19 Michigan -1
#13 Wisconsin @ #3 Ohio State -14
#20 Iowa -10.5 @ Northwestern

Last Week Against the Spread

Four teams covered last week: Ohio State and Minnesota easily covered big spreads. Indiana and Penn State covered in closer games. Iowa, a 17-point favorite over Purdue, won by only six. But the big upset ATS was 29-point underdog Illinois beating Wisconsin outright 24-23.

The hot take spread to watch this week is Notre Dame at Michigan. The #8 ranked Fighting Irish opened a 4-point underdog on the road to #19 Michigan. With lots of early money on Notre Dame, the game has been bet down to between -1 Michigan and pick’em at mid-week.

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Even an insider’s look at the brand new NBA season isn’t going to be perfect. If it were, then why play the games? But the 30 men who run the league’s teams have some interesting and valuable insights. Last year, the GMs picked Golden State to win the championship. To be specific, 87 percent of the GMs had the Warriors as repeat champs in 2018-19, and none picked the Toronto Raptors to win it all. Right or wrong, how much more inside can you get than the executives who put together the teams, and who make the trades and draft choices?

The NBA execs answered dozens of questions, some of which can be translated into valuable betting information, or at least can confirm your suspicions about what people in the know are thinking.

From the 2019-20 NBA GM Survey

• Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact? Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers 67%
• Which team will be most improved in 2019-20? LA Lakers 38%, Dallas Mavericks 21%
• Which is the best defensive team in the NBA? LA Clippers 52%, Utah Jazz 24%
• Which team has the best home-court advantage? Denver Nuggets 38%, Utah Jazz 24%, Golden State 24%
• Which bench player makes the biggest impact when he enters the game? Lou Williams, LA Clippers 79%

GMs Favor Bucks, Clippers to Win Big

GM wisdom has the LA Clippers as the new league champion, but only by a plurality of 46 percent. The Clippers are followed closely by the Milwaukee Bucks at 36 percent, and the Los Angeles Lakers at 11 percent. Golden State and Portland also picked up votes in the balloting.

There is little doubt among the GMs as to who will win in the Eastern Conference. With 23 of the 30 GMs picking Milwaukee, the Bucks are the runaway favorites. Of those who didn’t pick Milwaukee to win the east, six GMs had them in second place. Philadelphia picked up the only other votes to win the east.

Trailing Milwaukee and Philadelphia, in order, were: Boston, Brooklyn, and Toronto. Indiana, Miami, and Orlando round out the early season favorites to make the playoffs in the East. Last year, the Boston Celtics were picked by 90 percent of GMs to win the east.

Not surprisingly, the LA Clippers are the pick this season to win the west. Two-thirds of the GMs have the Clippers winning the conference, and no GM had the Clippers lower than third in the west.

Denver and the Lakers are solid choices to finish second and third, or visa-versa. Grouped right behind the top three are Utah, Golden State, and Houston. Portland is a curious surprise, getting one vote to win it all, but a handful of votes to miss the playoffs all together.

Who GMs Like for MVP

Last we heard, LeBron James is still in the league. But when it comes to MVP voting this year, King James is just an also-ran.

Giannis Antetokounmpo got 52 percent of the nods to repeat as league MVP. The “Greek Freak” is followed by Stephen Curry of Golden State, Anthony Davis of the LA Lakers, Kawhi Leonard with the LA Clippers, and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets.

Also getting at least one vote for MVP were James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Lebron.

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Sure, the 3-3 Dallas Cowboys should eventually get their act together after three straight losses. And the 3-3 Philadelphia Eagles likely will too. But heck, with rookie quarterback phenom Daniel Jones, maybe it will be the 2-4 New York Giants who end up taking down the division. The only team that appears to have no hope of finishing the season as division champs are the lowly 1-5 Washington Redskins.

The NFC East is a division in search of a leader. With the specter of an 8-8, or heaven forbid, a 7-9 team winning the division, someone has to step up.

The two 3-3 division leaders play in the Sunday night marquee matchup. Playing at home, the Cowboys are a 2.5-point favorite.

Sputtering Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

The Cowboys are the team most experts lean to when pushed to pick a favorite in the NFC East. But at 3-3, the Cowboys only have wins over the 0-6 Miami Dolphins, the 1-5 Redskins, and the 2-4 Giants. On the other hand, their losses are to the 5-1 New Orleans Saints,  5-1 Green Bay Packers, and last week’s upset loss to the 1-4 New York Jets.

The Dallas offense has sputtered without key players lost to injury. Coming up Sunday, the Cowboys hope to have Tyron Smith, Amari Cooper, and Randall Cobb back in uniform.

This week may tell the divisional tale not only for the Cowboys, but for the Eagles as well.

Fly-Away Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

There is no team harder to read this season than the Philadelphia Eagles. They can win big and lose ugly, and some of the wins aren’t really big. The first two games of the season saw a sloppy 5-point win over 1-5 Washington, followed by a 4-point loss to 1-5 Atlanta. The Eagles then lost by a field goal to Detroit before rebounding to beat the 5-1 Packers. An easy, 31-6 win over the Jets was followed up last week by an 18-point loss to Minnesota. The remaining Eagles’ schedule is tougher than any other team’s in the division.

We just don’t know who or what the Eagles are yet. On Sunday night in Texas, they get another chance to confuse us about where their season, and the NFC East, are going.

Not-Dead New York Giants (2-4)

At 2-4, it would be easy to write off the season for the Giants. Don’t. At least, not yet.

As die-hard Giants fans (like our editor) will point out, Big Blue is pretty banged up right now, with many offensive starters playing hurt, if they’re playing at all. But, the Giants are capable of miracles as they proved back in 2011 when they became the third-ever team  with a 9-7 record to reach the Super Bowl, and the first ever to win it.

The Giants have an almost perfectly balanced schedule going forward. Easy games against the Cardinals, Jets and Dolphins are offset by tough matchups against the Lions, Packers, and Bears. The rest of the New York schedule is within the NFC East, and both the Eagles and Cowboys are looking to feast on the Giants. Probably, maybe, sort of, the Giants are currently the solid third-place pick in the division.

WTF Washington Redskins (1-6)

It’s not too early to write-off the season for the Redskins. They fired their head coach, and their one win is against the 0-6 Miami Dolphins who may have tanked a 2-point conversion last week to hand Washington the win. The Redskins will pick up another win or two, possibly against the Giants or the Jets, but that’s it for Washington this season.

Better Luck Last Year?

In 2018, the NFC East sent two teams to the playoffs. Dallas and Philadelphia both won wild card games but lost in the divisional round.

2018 NFC East Final Standings

Dallas Cowboys        10-6
Philadelphia Eagles    9-7
Washington Redskins 7-9
New York Giants        5-11

It may be too early to declare a postseason drought for the division. But now more than a third of the way through the 2019 season, few are predicting that any of these four teams will be adding another Lombardy to their trophy case.

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The LPGA has more than a dozen new rules this year, and Walker learned too late that one of these changes has to do with where a player’s caddy can stand during a putt. She incurred a handicap-boggling 58 penalty strokes over the first 36 holes of the LPGA Senior Championship, which finished up today at the French Lick Resort in French Lick, Indiana.

How Can Someone Get 58 Penalty Strokes?

In the first two rounds, Monday and Tuesday, she had posted scores of 85 and 74. Not surprisingly, numbers like those weren’t good enough for her to make the cut and get to play round 3. But she signed her scorecard, and was reportedly thinking about where to have dinner when an LPGA official came to her with some bad, if not bizarre news.

During her second round, another player’s caddie informed Walker that her caddie had been standing in the wrong place according to the new 10.2b rule. The new rules, like the PGA rules, makes it a violation for a caddy to stand behind a player as they putt. Walker reported her apparent violation to a rules official and played on to finish her round.

Little did she know that her already less-than-impressive score was about to get much worse. Tournament officials decided that Walker and her caddy had violated the rule and multiple times, on more than half the holes she played.

“We had her recreate the times that that happened,�?an LPGA rules official told GolfWeek.

So instead of just a two-stroke penalty on the one hole in which a violation was reported, she received a penalty for every hole in which she could remember her caddy standing in the no-no zone.

Compounding Penalty Interest?

The best estimate of the number of infractions was determined to be 29 — 21 violations in round one and an additional eight in round two. With 42 penalty strokes added to Monday’s first round and 16 more added for Tuesday, Walker now carded rounds of 127 and 90.

Ultimately, Walker finished in last place, 39 strokes behind her nearest competitor.

Fortunately, even without the penalties Lee Ann Walker wouldn’t have made the cut.

But one has to wonder about a game so intent on sticking strictly to the rules. Was it really necessary to recreate the first round and a half to come up with 58 penalty strokes? Walker was not qualifying for the third round in any case, how about just a quiet disqualification or maybe a 15-yard personal foul and loss of down?

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Clearly some player injuries have a larger impact than others. The loss of quarterbacks Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Allen, and Mitch Trubisky this season are prime examples. But the league, in it’s reporting, does not distinguish between a star player and the third-string, backup right guard. The league lists injuries, practice status, and game status for all players with reported injuries. This data is conveniently reported by game matchups for the coming week.

However, the accuracy of any injury information depends on the team’s self-reporting. Take last Thursday’s game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. The injury report shows four Giants previously reported as injured now fully participating in practice and ready to play. Four other players were listed as out of the Thursday game, and one player was questionable. The four Giants reported as ready to play, did play. The four reported as out, were out. And the one questionable player had only limited minutes on the field.

The Patriots show one player out, and six questionable for the game. The out player was indeed out. Of the six questionable players, all six dressed for the game, but only four played.

Teams Manipulating the Injury Report

Following the injury report closely over time demonstrates the New England Patriots rely heavily on the questionable status when reporting a player’s game status. The unspoken reasoning being, why tell your opponent more than you have to? Various teams treat the injury report in widely different ways. Unless you’re reporting players out who suddenly appear healthy on game day, the league doesn’t interfere in just how accurate the injury report appears week to week.

Even a cursory glance at the injury report should give even novice bettors some solid information. Take the Baltimore Ravens game against Cincinnati last Sunday. The Bengals have six players already out of the game, and another questionable. The Ravens only declared one player out, and three questionable, but Baltimore also has six players coming back from injuries and ready to go. The Ravens were healthy and the Bengals were not. Surely, the betting line reflected this.

Certainly, who is hurt is just as important as how many nameless players are ready to go or not. Knowing which teams actively report, and which others hide information until game time, is also a big part of using the injury report to decide on betting opportunities.

Injuries By the Numbers

When a player is first put on the weekly injury report, it can be very difficult to determine just how long he will be out, except in the case of players who undergo immediate surgery or are taken off the roster with a season-ending event. For a long-term injury, there is the NFL Injured Reserve List. Players place on injured reserve (IR) are ineligible to play for the remainder of the season. However, each team may bring back two players during the season, after they have spent eight weeks on IR.

The NFL has 32 teams, each with a 53-player active roster. 46 players are allowed to dress for each game, so each full week of play begins with 1,696 roster players, and 1,472 in uniform (1,196, 1,288, 1,334 or 1,380 in bye weeks).

In the last two years, none of the 32 teams reported an injury free week. On average, half of the league — a full 16 teams — reported a player lost for the remainder of the year, each week of the season. Over the course of the year, that would mean 256 players out of the 1,696 roster spots would end their season by injury. It’s true a Week 15 or 16 injury could easily be much less severe than a Week 1 season-ender but, on average, each team loses 15% of its players from the opening day roster to injury. This doesn’t take into consideration players who miss one or more games during the season, and then return to play again.

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