It isn’t.

It sounds counterintuitive, doesn’t it? Send horses 1 ½ miles �?the longest distance any of them will ever run and it’s closer bait, right? Send them those 12 furlongs around a big track with deeper sand that wears on a modern Thoroughbred’s spindly legs and a deep closer is a natural, right?

No.

The only closer to win the Belmont since 2010 was Creator in 2016. He was one of only three horses since then to win from the back half of the field, joining stalker-deluxe Essential Quality last year and Sir Winston in 2019. In fact, according to Equibase, 13 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners were within 4 ½ lengths of the leader after the first half mile.

More trends? Yes, there are

That’s one trend to watch when you watch the 154^th Belmont Stakes, the centerpiece of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. One of eight Grade 1 races on Saturday’s card, the Belmont Stakes is the 11^th race, with an expected post time of 6:44 p.m. ET.

This year’s Belmont Stakes sends out an eight-horse field, the lightest field of the 2022 Triple Crown races. It sends out three horses from the Kentucky Derby: 80/1 upset winner Rich Strike, fifth-place Mo Donegal and sixth-place Barber Road. Two more come from the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago: third-place Creative Minister and fifth-place Skippylongstocking.

There are other trends worth following when sifting through the myriad of contestants attempting 12 furlongs on a huge track. Perhaps the most important one is pedigree.

Who’s your daddy makes a difference

Bloodlines matter here. Do they ever. Look at the pedigrees of recent Belmont Stakes winners and you find 14 of the last 15 came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of nine furlongs or farther. Before you ask, the Belmont Stakes go-to sire: Tapit, doesn’t have a horse in this year’s Belmont Stakes. That means he can’t extend his record of Belmont Stakes-winning progeny to five. But he is the sire of two sires with sons in the race: Constitution (We the People) and Race Day (Barber Road).

The other trend to pay attention to is the toteboard. Essential Quality’s victory over Hot Rod Charlie last year made it four winning favorites in the last seven years. Two others: Tacitus (2019) and Irish War Cry (2017) finished second. But according to Xpressbet, the average winner odds over the last 20 years is 13.48/1. Those four winning favorites: Essential Quality, Tiz the Law (2020), Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015) were the only favorites in the last 15 years running to their odds.

Belmont Stakes is the ‘Test of the Handicapper’

When a favorite doesn’t prevail, someone at juicy odds does. Four times in the last decade, the winning horse came in at 10/1 or greater odds. A fifth (Tonalist) was 9/1. This is where you find Sir Winston (10.20/1), Creator (16.40/1), Palace Malice (13.80/1), Ruler On Ice (24.75/1), Drosselmeyer (13/1). Go back to the Aughts and there’s Summer Bird (11.90/1), Da’Tara (38.50/1) and the biggest upset in Belmont Stakes history: 70.25/1 Sarava in 2002.

With that, OG News breaks down our field for Saturday’s race in categories, worst to first. The listed odds are the morning-line odds.

Why are you here?

Skippylongstocking (Post 2-20/1): Here, we begin with one of the two Preakness ex-pats, one coming in off that fifth in the Triple Crown’s second jewel �?by a barely noticeable 7 ½ lengths. We also have the most experienced horse in the field: 10 races. That experience produced in-the-money finishes in half of his starts (2-1-2). Conspicuous with their absence in that record are stakes victories, of which Skippylongstocking has none. His best stakes finish was a third to Mo Donegal and Early Voting in the Wood Memorial, where he finished a non-threatening 3 ¾ lengths back. As always, we applaud trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s dogged determination sending this son of 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator out for only his third start outside his native Gulfstream Park habitat �?and second Triple Crown outing. Like Barber Road, he’s a grinder who leaves every ounce of his limited talent on the track. In this company, the best scenario for that grinding is the bottom of the superfecta.

History suggests you take a flier

Barber Road (Post 8-10/1): Another race, another day for Barber Road to outrun his odds and grind his way to yet another where-did-he-come-from finish. He did this in the Derby, finishing sixth at 60.40/1, less than five lengths behind Rich Strike. He did this in the Arkansas Derby, finishing second at 10/1. Barber Road kept the plot in the Southwest Stakes, finishing second at 11.80/1. You get the idea. But what is missing from this grinding closer’s trend of never taking a race off is actually winning a stakes race: graded or otherwise. Barber Road is 0-for-6 in stakes contests, although he does have four seconds and a third. He also has Eclipse Award-winning jockey Joel Rosario �?he of the two Belmont wins since 2014 �?in the irons. What Rosario will do is no secret: let Barber Road hang in the rear of the field, then turn the jets on at the top of the stretch and hope he can do what he usually does: pick off tired horses and grab a piece of the board. This may work �?to a point. Barber Road will be on many tickets as a dark-horse because he’s 6-for-9 hitting the board. But there are better closers with more speed keeping him from the upper echelon of the board.

Golden Glider (Post 7-20/1): Believe it or not, there’s plenty to like here â€�?once you take your eyes off Golden Glider’s base-metal record on the Derby trail. Not that this is easy to do, seeing his fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby by three lengths and fourth by nearly seven in the Blue Grass Stakes. And yes, Golden Glider’s pedestrian speed figures â€�?nothing north of his 99 Equibase in the Tampa Bay Derby â€�?aren’t exactly glittering off the page. He did manage to stay with We the People for six furlongs of the Peter Pan, the Belmont Stakes’ prep. And then, We the People decided enough was enough and pulled away to win by more than 10. So why aren’t we talking about fool’s gold here? Well, pedigree, for starters. Golden Glider is the son of former Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who did win a Grade 1 at further than nine furlongs. And history for another. Trainer Mark Casse brought the ignored Sir Winston into the 2019 Belmont at 10/1 and came out with his first Belmont Stakes title. It’s not out of the realm for Golden Glider to follow the trend of double-digit, well-bred afterthoughts stealing the Belmont Stakes. Given all of the above, it’s not likely he steals anything north of the superfecta. But haven’t we seen stranger things this spring?

No. Not again

Rich Strike (Post 4-7/2): Did someone ask about stranger things this spring? If our Kentucky Derby winner was a human being, he’d be a Kardashian, given the amount of attention NYRA’s communications department has showered on him. They chronicled every move, trot, twitch and step of the Derby winner, starting with having video of him getting off the van when he arrived at Belmont Park — at 1 a.m. It’s a good thing his fellow Belmont Stakes contenders weren’t paying attention, lest they do more than kick dirt in Rich Strike’s face Saturday. And make no mistake, Rich Strike will face plenty of kickback. He’ll also face a pace scenario nowhere near the incendiary one that allowed him to rally from 15^th after a mile to steal the Derby from Epicenter 50 yards from the wire. NYRA giving Rich Strike the Triple Crown-in waiting treatment is understandable to a degree. It’s not every day you get an 80/1 Derby winner as your main storyline whose connections felt the Belmont Stakes was a better fit. Should Rich Strike validate that Derby win, he’ll be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch in 1995. That said, no horse has won the Derby, skipped the Preakness and captured the Belmont. The last to try? Gato del Sol, in 1982. He finished second in the Belmont Stakes. Along with that, you’re asking us to take 7/2 (or worse) on a stone-cold closer who went off at 80/1 five weeks ago? A horse who is 0-for-5 outside Churchill Downs? We’ll need more than good works and People Magazine-like coverage to snap that bet off.

The Wild Card 2.0

Creative Minister (Post 5-6/1): Remember before the Preakness, when we said we honestly can’t gauge where Creative Minister would wind up, given his limited body of work? After his gritty third in the Preakness, behind Early Voting and Epicenter, we’re still at a creative loss trying to figure out where Creative Minister fits here. Like Golden Glider, Barber Road and Skippylongstocking, this son of Creative Cause doesn’t own a stakes win on the CV. His 99 Equibase was nine points lower than that 108 he clocked in his scintillating Churchill Downs allowance win. And even with that third, he never threatened the two horses in front of him. There’s also the fact that only three horses in the last 20 years came out of the Preakness and won the Belmont Stakes. And two of those: American Pharoah and Justify, won the Triple Crown. That this is his third race in five weeks �?and only fifth overall �?makes you wonder why he’s this high here. He’s this high because we trust Kenny McPeek as much as any trainer. “He’s been a horse who has handled whatever level we’ve taken him to. Good horses do that. It seems like if he can step forward one more time, he’s right there,�?McPeek said. And 20 years ago, guess who was right there with 70/1 Sarava? Yep, McPeek.

Expect them to be there

Nest (Post 3-8/1): Often lost in the Triple Crown trainer chatter is the fact that Todd Pletcher is to the Belmont Stakes as Bob Baffert is to the Kentucky Derby and D. Wayne Lukas is to the Preakness Stakes. This is the New York-based Pletcher’s domain in more ways than one. He greeted three of his charges in the Belmont Park winner’s circle: Tapwrit (2017), Palace Malice (2013) and filly Rags to Riches (2007). None of them were favored. Go back to 2006 and you find Pletcher has six Belmont runners-up and three more who finished third. Simply put, you want a Pletcher charge on your tickets. And speaking of fillies, Nest has many of the elements to join Rags to Riches on Pletcher’s Belmont trophy mantle. She has the pedigree: Curlin, out of graded stakes-winner Marion Ravenswood, a product of A.P. Indy, who has the second-fastest Belmont Stakes time in history. Her Equibase Speed Figures, with a peak of 102 set last out in her Kentucky Oaks runner-up finish, put her in the mix. Nest has never finished out of the trifecta (4-1-1), and her last two wins came by a combined 14 ¼ lengths. Yes, she’s a filly who finished behind Secret Oath in the Oaks �?the same Secret Oath who finished fourth in the Preakness. But we’ll climb back on that limb once again. “We nominated her for the Triple Crown back in January because we’ve had this type of race in mind for her. She has a strong pedigree for hit and a lot of ability,�?Pletcher said. With Pletcher’s record and Nest’s pedigree and tactical speed, who are we to argue?

Mo Donegal (Post 6-5/2): Say “hello�?to the best closer in the field, a colt who would have topped more Derby tickets had he not drawn the dreaded rail. Even with that cursed post and a nightmare trip that pushed Mo Donegal outside after he was pushed back early, Mo Donegal finished a solid fifth: only 3 ¾ lengths back. Along the way, he made up 17 lengths and 14 places. That was the only off-the-board finish in Mo Donegal’s six-race career (3-0-2). Pedigree snobs may sniff at sire Uncle Mo, who wasn’t a distance sire. But on Mo Donegal’s dam’s side, you’ve got the likes of A.P. Indy and Tabasco Cat, who make up for that perceived bloodline shortcoming. Meanwhile, you’ve also got a Belmont Park winner over 1 1/16 miles who owns two graded stakes victories: the Grade 3 Remsen and Grade 2 Wood Memorial, where he beat Preakness winner Early Voting. Mo Donegal. Yes, he’s a closer in a race unkind to that genus. But someone’s gotta finish second and a colt trained by a three-time Belmont Stakes-winning trainer in Pletcher is never a bad place to go.

The Pick

We the People (Post 1-2/1): As is our custom, let’s preamble We the People’s flaws. He takes a huge step up in class from his 10 ¼-length Peter Pan romp. The last time he tried Grade 1 company â€�?at the Arkansas Derby â€�?his trip was anything but domestic tranquility: a miserable seventh. At anywhere around his 2/1 morning line odds, he is anything but a perfect union in terms of value, especially in this field. And yes, 11 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes favorites lost the plot. Now, that posterity of this Constitution colt established, here’s why you’re looking at the likely winner of the 2022 Belmont Stakes. First, he romped to that Peter Pan at Big Sandy. Winning a race at Belmont Park, with its soft sand and sweeping turns, can’t be overestimated. Second, you can draw a line through that Arkansas Derby, since We the People did not secure the blessings of a good trip. He got sucked five wide into the first turn and four wide into traffic throughout. That seventh is the only time We the People did not win a race in four outings. And finally, the most important reason: We the People is the lone speed in the Belmont Stakes field. With Flavien Prat at the controls, expect We the People to bolt out quick from his rail post and use his speed as a common defense against his rivals â€�?all of whom are closers of varying abilities. If he gets into a comfortable rhythm, especially if it rains — and there’s a 30% chance it will Saturday — We the People’s general welfare will include a Belmont Stakes title. And after you see new minority owner Bobby Flay in the winner’s circle, you can cue up this catchy song in We the People’s honor.

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The now-6-year-old horse received 228 votes out a possible 235 first-place votes (97%)  for Horse of the Year. Stablemate Essential Quality and Letruska were the other nominees in voting by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters (NTWAB), Daily Racing Form, member racetrack racing officials and Equibase field personnel.

Letruska, who won an Eclipse for Champion Older Female, garnered two first-place votes. So did Japanese mare Loves Only You. Essential Quality, who won the Eclipse for Champion 3-Year-Old Male, Lil Latig and the late Medina Spirit earned one vote apiece.

OG News does not have an Eclipse vote.

Honoring excellence in North American Thoroughbred racing, the Eclipse Awards returned live for the first time since 2020. Last year’s event was virtual, due to the pandemic.

Knicks Go broke $7 million in season earnings

There was no mystery surrounding the 2021 Horse of the Year. Knicks Go went 5-for-7 in 2021, winning three Grade 1s: the Pegasus World Cup, the Whitney and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He added the Grade 3 Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows and the ungraded Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. Put it together and you come up with $7,324,140 in total earnings, which led all North American horses in that category.

Knicks Go rides into retirement at Taylor Made Farm as the No. 1 ranked horse in the world, according to the Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings.

For the second consecutive year, BRAD COX takes the Outstanding Trainer Eclipse Award! 🎊�?pic.twitter.com/m0gHF4Zvaj

— NYRA (ðŸ—�? (@TheNYRA) February 11, 2022

Knicks Go, who finished second to Life Is Good in defense of his Pegasus World Cup title last month, added the Champion Older Male Eclipse to his haul. And his tails carried his trainer, Brad Cox, to his second consecutive Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer. They also carried his jockey, Joel Rosario, to his first Eclipse Award as Outstanding Jockey.

Cox set a North American earnings record for trainers. His horses racked up $31,001,731 in earnings. His 269 victories included 30 graded stakes. Rosario, who rode Knicks Go in all his victories, amassed $32,944,478 in earnings. He won 26% of his graded stakes races, hitting the board 53% of the time.

Joel Rosario is the top Jockey at the Eclipse Awards and for good reason. From 1,083 mounts he had 228 winners along with 163 place and 153 show finishes. Horses he rode won$32,944,478. His 49 graded stakes wins included victories by Knicks Go, Echo Zulu and Jackie's Warrior.

— NTWAB (@NTWAB) February 11, 2022

Bookend Eclipses for Essential Quality

Cox’s Essential Quality picked up his second Eclipse in as many seasons, adding a bookend to his Champion 2-Year-Old award from 2020. He’s the sixth horse to own those particular Eclipse bookends since the awards began in 1971. Now retired along with Knicks Go, Essential Quality won the Belmont Stakes, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Travers Stakes. He finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to Knicks Go and Medina Spirit and fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

His success helped Godolphin capture both the Outstanding Owner and Outstanding Breeder Eclipse Awards. The breeding colossus earned 216 votes in the owner category, with Klaravich Stables next at a mere seven. Godolphin amassed 205 in the breeders category. Calumet Farm was next with eight. Godolphin led the owners earnings table with more than $17 million. It also led the breeders earnings list with more than $18.4 million.

That was a trend in a year largely devoid of drama. Letruska’s Eclipse for Champion Older Female came with 227 out of the 235 first-place votes, not surprising in a year where she won six graded stakes, including three Grade 1s: the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park, Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park and Spinster Stakes at Keeneland.

Malathaat, Echo Zulu other easy choices

Another three-time Grade 1 winner, Malathaat, breezed to the Champion 3-Year-Old filly Eclipse. She won the Ashland at Keeneland, the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs and the Alabama at Saratoga. Those feats earned her 227 out of 235 first-place votes.

Other dominant winners included Echo Zulu as Champion 2-Year-Old Filly (233 out of 235 first-place votes), and Corniche as Champion 2-Year-Old Male (214 out of 235). The former was expected, considering Echo Zulu won all four of her races, capped by a 5 ¼-length romp in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Corniche’s victory wasn’t as assured going in. Because he’s trained by controversial trainer Bob Baffert, several writers went on the record vowing not to vote for any of his horses. Yet, Corniche’s 3-for-3 record �?which included Grade 1 scores in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile �?overcame many voter’s objections. He was clearly the best 2-year-old male in North America and when the votes were counted, only three writers abstained from voting.

And the Eclipse Award for Two-Year-Old Male goes to�?Corniche!

Congratulations to our 2021 @TVG #BreedersCup Juvenile Pres. by @TBaftercare Champ! #EclipseAwards #FutureStarsFriday

J: @mikeesmith10
T: Bob Baffert
O: Speedway Stables LLC
B: Bart Evans & @StonehavenSS pic.twitter.com/lBc0BAyG84

— Breeders' Cup (@BreedersCup) February 11, 2022

That gave Baffert his sixth Champion 2-Year-Old and record 27^th Eclipse Award-winning horse.

Jackie’s Warrior survived a lackluster season finish

The sprinter awards were closer, albeit not nail-biters given the depth of both fields. Jackie’s Warrior overcame his poor sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint to win Male Sprinter of the Year. Voters put more stock in his four stakes wins �?including the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial at Saratoga. They gave him 110 first-place votes to runner-up Aloha West’s 50. Jackie’s Warrior was the only horse to beat Life Is Good, who received one first-place vote.

Ce Ce won the Female Sprinter Eclipse. She went 4-for-6, including an impressive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she beat last year’s Eclipse winner, Gamine. Ce Ce garnered 137 first-place votes to Gamine’s 97.

In a crowded Male Turf category, voters went for Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir, who took 135 first-place votes to 33 apiece for Domestic Spending and Space Blues. The Female Turf Eclipse went to another foreign horse: Japan’s Loves Only You. She became the first Japanese horse so honored, garnering 136 first-place votes to 70 for War Like Goddess and captivating voters with her victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Top apprentice added another gold brick to Santa Anita colony

The Mean Queen earned Champion Steeplechase Horse, becoming the second female to win the Steeplechase Eclipse and the first since Life’s Illusion in 1975. She won all six of her US starts in 2021.

2021 Eclipse Award Winners

Jessica Pyfer took home the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Apprentice Jockey. The 23-year-old Pyfer led all North American apprentice riders with $2,857,333 in earnings. She finished second in apprentice wins with 56. Pyfer is the third female to win the Eclipse for apprentice jockey, following Rosemary Homeister Jr. and Emma-Jayne Wilson. She is also the seventh Santa Anita-based apprentice to win the award.

Justin Mustari, the 2021 National Horseplayers Championship winner, won an Eclipse as Horseplayer of the Year

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Instead, finalists in 16 of the 17 human and equine categories were announced. The winners â€�?culminating with the Horse of the Year reveal — will be announced on TVG and elsewhere on Thursday, Feb. 10 at 5 pm PT.

The Eclipse Awards get their name from the iconic 18^th-century racehorse and sire Eclipse, who retired unbeaten in 18 starts and who sired 344 winners. Eight of his victories were walkovers. Created in 1971, the awards honor both equine and human standouts in 17 categories.

OG News doesn’t have a vote, but of the 245 eligible voters representing the NTRA, NTWAB, member racetrack racing officials, and Equibase representatives, 235 (95.9%) cast votes. The 235 voters winnowed each category to three finalists using a 10-5-1 point basis: first to third. Eclipse Awards winners are based solely on first-place votes.

Baffert factor will play a prominent role in voting

While Knicks Go is a foregone conclusion to win both Horse of the Year and Older Dirt Male, several other categories â€�?most prominently 2-Year-Old Male and 3-Year-Old Male â€�?will break down into a voter referendum on Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. More than a few voters â€�?largely from Eastern outlets — have already come out saying they won’t vote for any Baffert horse.

That comes after the conditioner’s star 3-year-old, Medina Spirit, tested positive for the anti-inflammatory betamethasone after his Kentucky Derby victory. The late Medina Spirit, who died suddenly after a Dec. 6 workout, is one of the three finalists for 3-Year-Old Male. Essential Quality and former Baffert charge Life Is Good are the other finalists.

Two other Baffert notables are up for Eclipses: Corniche in the 2-Year-Old Male category and Gamine as top Female Sprinter. Corniche won two of the five juvenile Grade 1s in 2021, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Winning that prize usually guarantees the champion an Eclipse. But the anti-Baffert vote may drop that prize into Jack Christopher’s lap. He won the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont Park last fall before going on the shelf with an injury. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Modern Games is the other finalist.

Gamine may find repeating difficult

Gamine ran away with last year’s Eclipse for Best Female Sprinter, but her lackluster defense of her Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint �?where she finished a well-beaten third �?combined with the Baffert factor, may tilt this toward Ce Ce. She won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Bella Sofia is the other finalist

One other contentious category is Best Male Sprinter, where voters must decide if Flightline’s limited �?but incandescent �?three-race record rates better than Jackie’s Warrior’s sustained excellence. Flightline won his three races by a combined 37 ½ lengths while Jackie’s Warrior raced seven times �?all in graded stakes. He won four times, finished second once and third once. Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Aloha West is the other finalist.

2021 Eclipse Awards Finalists (in alphabetical order)

Jackie’s Warrior’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, is one of the finalists for Trainer of the Year. Defending champion Brad Cox, who set a North American trainer earnings record, and Chad Brown are the other two. Cox’s 2020 Eclipse snapped Brown’s four-year hammerlock on the award. Asmussen, who surpassed Dale Baird’s record for most career wins by a North American trainer last summer, hasn’t won an Eclipse since 2009. He went back-to-back in 2008 and 2009. Both Asmussen and Brown won 10 Grade 1 races.

Could Rosario, Prat win their first riding Eclipse?

Another hammerlock may be in jeopardy this year. That’s Irad Ortiz Jr’s. three-year hold on Jockey of the Year. After leading in wins (336), he’s a finalist again, along with Flavien Prat and Joel Rosario. But after leading North American riders in earnings ($32,944,478) and earnings-per-start ($30,420), Rosario could claim his first Eclipse. Prat, who also is in line for his first Eclipse, led in win percentage (27%) and in-the-money finishes (63%). He was fifth in earnings.

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Trainer Brad Cox told the Breeders’ Cup notes team that the Classic winner and all-but-anointed Horse of the Year has one more race in him before his stallion career at Taylor Made Farm awaits.

“If he comes out of it good and he trains well, we’ll point for the Pegasus,�?Cox said Sunday. “It’s a good purse, it’s a surface he likes and if he’s doing well, there have been horses that won the Breeders’ Cup and ended their careers with that, between the likes of Gun Runner and City of Light. It’s always a nice race that you can pick off hopefully before going off to stud.�?/p>

Knicks Go picked off a strong field in Saturday’s Classic where he went off as the 3.20/1 second-favorite. His 112 Beyer Speed Figure was the best Beyer of any Breeders’ Cup runner and one point off his career-best.

Complete Beyers for @BreedersCup Weekend @DelMarRacing led by 112 for Knicks Go, 109 for Life Is Good, 107 for Golden Pal.. pic.twitter.com/rx3IvEBnxG

— Steve Byk (@Steve_Byk) November 7, 2021

That’s that for Essential Quality

Knicks Go’s stablemate and Cox’s 3-year-old mainstay, Essential Quality, is headed off to stud after his third to Knicks Go and Medina Spirit in Saturday’s Classic. The Belmont and Travers champion takes his 8-0-1 career record and more than $4.7 million in earnings to Darley America’s Jonabell, Kentucky, farm. There, he’ll stand for $75,000 in his first year at stud.

The only thing left on Essential Quality’s racing plate is whether he or Medina Spirit will claim Champion 3-Year-Old honors. You could make a case for either of them, which both Cox and Medina Spirit’s trainer, Bob Baffert did in the wake of Saturday’s 2-3 Classic finish. Essential Quality was the 9/5 post-time favorite.

“I think he deserves to be champion 3-year-old,�?Cox said. “He has two big Grade 1s, two very prestigious wins in the Belmont and Travers. He was able to have a campaign all year. It started in the Southwest; he ran a big one in the Blue Grass. The Derby, obviously, didn’t work out quite the way we would have liked, but he was able to follow it up with a spectacular summer at Saratoga. And then to come in here and I really think he performed very well. I thought about this this morning when I woke up: ‘Is there anything I could have done different with him to prepare for this?’ I wouldn’t have prepared him any different.�?/p>

Medina Spirit did beat Essential Quality twice

Mr. Baffert, your response concerning Medina Spirit?

“He was best of all the others and he beat those same 3-year-olds (Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie) again by about the same margin,�?Baffert said, referring to Medina Spirit’s victory over his fellow sophomores in May’s Kentucky Derby.

Baffert said nothing was on the immediate horizon for Medina Spirit, who finished 2 ¾ lengths behind Knicks Go at 6.80/1. That came with a 109 Beyer, tying Life Is Good’s mark in the Dirt Mile for the No. 2 Beyer of the weekend. But he said owner Amr Zedan was interested in running him in the Saudi Cup in February.

Hot Rod Charlie took one for the team, chasing Knicks Go

Hot Rod Charlie, meanwhile, has no immediate plans coming out of the Breeders’ Cup after he and his 107 Beyer finished 4 ½ lengths behind Knicks Go. Roadrunner Racing’s Greg Helm, who owns the horse with Boat Racing, Bill Strauss, and Gainesway Farm, told OG News you should expect more of the Oxbow colt next season.

“Our plan is to run him. He’s America’s horse,” Helm told OG News via text.

Hot Rod Charlie sacrificed his board-hitting opportunity when he made a strong run at Knicks Go coming out of the far turn. He tired and got passed by his fellow 3-year-olds in mid-stretch.

“He came out of the race fine and scoped clean,�?trainer Doug O’Neill said. “We will sit down and discuss it (plans for 2022), but right now, nothing is targeted. He’s only 3 and it is very exciting to think about the possibilities for him.�?/p>

Life Is Good was better than good in the Breeders’ Cup

That brings us back to Life Is Good, who turned in probably the best performance of the weekend. His 5 ¾-length bludgeoning of the Dirt Mile field as the 3/5 favorite was the biggest victory margin of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races. The 109 Beyer came with searing fractions of 21.66 seconds (quarter-mile), 44.94 (half), and 1:08.76 (three-quarters). He stopped the clock in an impressive 1:34.21, going gate-to-wire and forcing jockey Irad Ortiz to gear down in the middle of the turn.

“It was everything that we were hoping for and then maybe even more,�?trainer Todd Pletcher said. “My first concern was just, hopefully, he hadn’t gone too fast, but it seemed like he was relaxed and settled. In spite of the fact that he was rolling right along, he was doing it comfortably. I think that’s kind of what we’ve come to expect from him. It’s one of those horses that’s extremely fast, has a very high cruising speed, and the ability to continue doing it.�?/p>

Had it not been for a 5 ½-month layoff between races due to an ankle chip. Life Is Good would be firmly in the discussion for Champion 3-Year-Old. He’ll get votes along with another shot at Knicks Go in the Pegasus on Jan. 29.

“That’s what we’d spoke about prior to the race that our sort of two-race plan was the mile and then stretch him out further in the Pegasus,�?Pletcher said. “He certainly ran well enough to proceed in that direction if everything goes smoothly, but we haven’t really had any time to really firmly discuss our entire plans yet.�?/p>

Golden Pal ran a gilded Breeders’ Cup race

One of the other lights-out Saturday performances came from Golden Pal, who won the Turf Sprint gate-to-wire with a career-best 107 Beyer. Trainer Wesley Ward said he can’t wait to get the 3-year-old on the track for his 4-year-old season.

“I’ve been singing his praises for a long time and he’s the best one we had running,�?Ward said. “I’m excited to run him in the Breeders’ Cup next year at Keeneland. He’s going to be a four-year-old and faster. We’ll point to Royal Ascot with him in the King’s Stand and prep at Keeneland in April in the Shakertown. If he can win in England, he can really stamp himself as a stallion.�?/p>

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Avoid the rush, which Knicks Go splendidly did at Del Mar Saturday evening. He broke out to his patented early lead and turned aside all challenges, rolling home to a 2 ½-length victory in the flagship event of the 14-race Breeders’ Cup weekend at Del Mar.

That capped a record handle weekend for the Breeders’ Cup. It generated $182,908,409 in all-sources, common-pool handle. That bested the previous record of $174,628,986 horseplayers put down two years ago, when the annual fall festival was at Santa Anita. Both Saturday’s common-pool handle of $121,562,392 and Friday’s $61,346,017 set records for their respective days.

This came with Del Mar reporting a two-day attendance of 47,089. The track and Breeders’ Cup limited attendance due to COVID precautions.

Only three favorites out of nine prevailed

And Saturday’s crowd watched a racing day featuring another healthy helping of upsets. Amazingly enough, 5/2 morning-line favorite Knicks Go technically qualified. He didn’t go as the post-time favorite. That went to Essential Quality, who left the post as the 9/5 favorite as money chased the Belmont and Travers champion.

Essential Quality, along with fellow 3-year-olds Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie, chased Knicks Go around the Del Mar track. So did Art Collector.

“Yeah, he was very comfortable,�?jockey Joel Rosario said. “He looked like he was really enjoying what he was doing up there. I can see the gleam in his eye. He was just so relaxed, so calm.�?/p>

Why shouldn’t he be calm? With the exception of Hot Rod Charlie, none of them took their shot at catching Knicks Go. As usual, he led at every call, taking the pack out in reasonable, unpressured fractions of 23.16 (quarter-mile), 45.77 (half) and 1:10.04 (three-quarters). He hardly knew Art Collector tracked him down the backstretch before surrendering going into the turn. He wound up sixth.

That left matters to the sophomores. Hot Rod Charlie took the best shot, firing out of the far turn and unleashing a fast turn of foot that brought Hot Rod Charlie within a length-and-change of his quarry. But Knicks Go shrugged it off, pulling away in early stretch.

Hot Rod Charlie was the Classic sacrificial lamb

The game move cost Hot Rod Charlie a spot on the board. He wound up fourth. Meanwhile, as Knicks Go pulled away, Medina Spirit and Essential Quality picked up the baton from their fellow 3-year-old. They didn’t come close, finishing second and third, respectively.

“He doesn’t quit does he?!�? @bradcoxracing
“He just keeps moving forward!�? @JRosarioJockey

Congrats to all connections of our @Longines Classic champion Knicks Go! pic.twitter.com/7KrtCmN3nz

— Breeders' Cup (@BreedersCup) November 7, 2021

“I kind of felt like if they did try to go with him they may jeopardize their own opportunity to win the race and they just hoped to run with him at a mile and a quarter,â€�?trainer Brad Cox said. “But it showed — speed’s very dangerous and he was obviously fit, ready to run, happy, doing well.â€�?/p>

Knicks Go finished his 10-furlong tour in 1:59.57, paying $8.40, $6.20 and $4 as the 3/1 second-favorite. He became the sixth horse to win two different Breeders’ Cup races, adding the Classic to his Dirt Mile title from last year. The fifth to turn that rare trick came earlier Saturday, when Golden Pal won the Turf Sprint. He took the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year.

Golden Pal, Life Is Good, Space Blues your favorite winners

Golden Pal was one of only three favorites migrating to the winner’s circle Saturday. The 5/2 top choice paid $7 for his 1 ¼-length, gate-to-wire victory that wasn’t that close. Life Is Good ran to his 3/5 odds with a 5 ¼-length wipeout in the Dirt Mile. And European invader Space Blues ($6.20) ran to his 3/1 odds, winning the Mile by a half-length.

Every Breeders’ Cup has one toteboard-destroying bomb and this was no exception, courtesy of Marche Lorraine, who captured the Distaff at 49/1. This, courtesy of blistering fractions from front-runners Private Mission and 8/5 favorite Letruska, who was seeking her seventh 2021 victory in eight starts. Instead, she got entangled in a speed duel that produced a 21.84-second opening quarter-mile and a 44.97 opening half.

“They went too fast. They didn’t want her to be on the lead,�?said jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who won the Bill Shoemaker Award as the Breeders’ Cup’s top rider. “They went after her. She wants to run and I tried to slow her down as much as possible, but it didn’t work out.�?/p>

Del Mar was the land of the Rising Sun

Instead, it worked out for Japanese invader Marche Lorraine, who came out of the clouds from the middle of the track. She fended off late charges from Royal Flag and Clairiere to her outside and Dunbar Road and Malathaat to her inside. Her photo finish victory over Dunbar Road paid $101.80, $41 and $18.80 and combined with 12.30/1 Dunbar Road, provided a $1,026.60 payday on the $2 exacta.

REPLAY: MARCHE LORRAINE (JPN) wins the $2 Million @LonginesEq #BreedersCup Distaff! Congrats to her connections! #BC21

J: Oisin Murphy
T: Yoshito Yahagi
O: U. Carrot Farm
B: Northern Farm pic.twitter.com/10PQZ3Lk0x

— Breeders' Cup (@BreedersCup) November 6, 2021

Entering this year’s Breeders’ Cup, no Japanese horse ever found the winner’s circle. Marche Lorraine was the second in two hours. Earlier, Loves Only You �?who bettors knocked down to 4/1 �?upset 2/1 favorite War Like Goddess (third) to win the Filly & Mare Turf.

Love is all you need! ❤️

Loves Only You (JPN) puts her nose down at the right time to win the @MakersMark #BreedersCup Filly & Mare Turf! pic.twitter.com/oiAKjDNrl1

— Breeders' Cup (@BreedersCup) November 6, 2021

This is for Japan! 🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯�?/p>

Just look at what that LOVES ONLY YOU #ラヴズオンリーユ�?/a> victory meant to connections! 🥺#競馬 #BreedersCup @BreedersCup pic.twitter.com/Y73KuWjs6t

— World Horse Racing (@WHR) November 6, 2021

Letruska and War Like Goddess had plenty of company on the upset front. There was 6/1 Ce Ce, defeating 2/5 defending champion Gamine in the Breeders’ Cup’s opening race, the Filly and Mare Sprint. That came after Bella Sofia and Edgeway pressured Gamine all the way through the backstretch and turn. Edgeway finished second, leaving third for Gamine.

Aloha West bid ‘Aloha’ to Jackie’s Warrior

There was 11/1 Aloha West capturing the Sprint in a photo finish over Dr. Schivel. This, after Aloha West entered the stretch in sixth. As Dr. Schivel passed 1/2 favorite Jackie’s Warrior and Special Reserve in the stretch, Aloha West bided his time, then surged down the center of the track. He nipped an unsuspecting Dr. Schivel literally at the wire, paying $24.60. Following Sea was third. Jackie’s Warrior finished a non-threatening sixth, 4 ½ lengths back.

Europeans dominate the $4 million Turf, winning 22 of the previous 37 editions and five of the last six. Even so, Great Britain-bred Yibir’s victory at 8/1 counts as a mild upset. Coming along for the ride was a $19 payday, a course record of 2:25.90 for the 1 ½ miles and the third victory of the weekend for trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick. They earlier combined to win the Mile with Space Blues and Friday’s Juvenile Turf with the now-notorious Modern Games.

Defending champion and 2/1 favorite Tarnawa finished 11^th.

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Last year’s winner, Authentic, was 5/1. Your favorite, meanwhile, was 3.20/1 Tiz the Law. He finished sixth. The year before? McKinzie was the 2.90/1 top choice. He finished second on his home Santa Anita track to 4.60/1 Eastern shipper Vino Rosso. Go back to 2018 and you find Accelerate as the last favorite to win, at 2.90/1.

Favorites have won twice in the last 10 years: Accelerate and American Pharoah. This is not a race for chalk-eaters.

It is, however, the Classic, one of the best Thoroughbred races of the year on any continent, which merits a primer on the flagship race of a $31 million flagship weekend for horse racing.

Breeders’ Cup Classic a career-defining race

Win any Breeders’ Cup race and you immediately become part of the discussion for post-season honors. Win the Classic and you become part of the Horse of the Year discussion, although it isn’t a slam-dunk. Fourteen Classic winners trotted off with Horse of the Year honors, Authentic and Gun Runner �?who won the 2017 Classic the last time it ran at Del Mar �?being the last two. Regardless, you become part of racing history. And you become �?if you’re a stallion prospect �?a better stallion prospect.

If it helps, think of the 1 ¼-mile race is an All-Star race. It pits the top older horses in North America against the top 3-year-olds, who usually come out of that spring’s Triple Crown campaign. A Kentucky Derby winner isn’t uncommon; yes, we’re talking about you, Authentic. And you, American Pharoah. And yes, you, California Chrome. Even if you did finish third in the 2014 Classic.

This year, yes, we’re talking about you, Medina Spirit (4/1). And not to be ignored, we’re talking about Belmont Stakes champion Essential Quality (3/1). And the horse who finished third in the Derby and second in that Belmont: Hot Rod Charlie (4/1).

It can pay to be young — and a Baffert trainee

Sophomores won four Classics in the last seven years. And Bob Baffert trained every one: Authentic, Bayern (2014), American Pharoah (2015) and Arrogate (2016). He has 4/1 Kentucky Derby champion Medina Spirit in this field. Youth can �?and has �?been served here.

Except when it isn’t. That’s where your older horses come in, the ones usually coming in off victories in some of the top older horse routes of the year. Horses like Whitney winner Knicks Go (your 5/2 favorite), Pacific Classic winner Tripoli (15/1), Woodward winner Art Collector (8/1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Max Player (8/1).

Did we say this was an All-Star race? And did we say that favorites aren’t favored?

Which brings us back to Knicks Go. That the 5-year-old Paynter horse is Jon White’s morning-line favorite is hardly surprising. All he’s done in two-turn races is lay speedy waste to the fields running against him. Knicks Go won his last three races: the Cornhusker Handicap, Whitney and Lukas Stakes by a combined 19 ¾ lengths.

Knicks Go gives rivals a Classic dilemma

The M.O. for this is as familiar as it is demoralizing to his opponents, because they literally face a Hobson’s Choice. Either go out with him and likely sacrifice your chances to win, or let Knicks Go run unfettered, whereupon he is uncatchable and you’re running for second by the backstretch.

But it’s that Roadrunner-cartoon like speed that could be Knicks Go’s undoing this time out. First, he hasn’t run 1 ¼ miles in his lengthy career. Second, this edition of the Classic features what could be Knicks Go’s second Achilles heel outside of one-turn races (where he has a pair of fourths this year).

Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic/Del Mar

Morning Line (Jockey/Trainer)

1. Tripoli, 15/1 (Irad Ortiz Jr./John Sadler)
2. Express Train, 20/1 (Victor Espinoza/John Shirreffs)
3. Hot Rod Charlie, 4/1 (Flavien Prat/Doug O’Neill)
4. Essential Quality, 3/1 (Luis Saez/Brad Cox)
5. Knicks Go, 5/2 (Joel Rosario/Brad Cox)
6. Art Collector, 8/1 (Mike Smith/Bill Mott)
7. Stilleto Boy, 30/1 (Kent Desormeaux/Ed Moger Jr.)
8. Medina Spirit, 4/1 (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert)
9. Max Player, 8/1 (Ricardo Santana Jr./Steve Asmussen)

And that’s rabbits willing to run with him. In Medina Spirit, Art Collector, Express Train (20/1) and maybe Hot Rod Charlie in Belmont mode, Knicks Go likely will have company out of the gate. Right behind that pack will be Essential Quality and Tripoli �?along with Hot Rod Charlie if Flavien Prat �?one of the best riders in the world and a multiple Del Mar riding champ �?doesn’t send him out. And don’t forget about Max Player.

Here’s how Knicks Go joins that Classic graveyard of favorites. That feral pace, combined with his lack of 10-furlong experience finally sinks the Brad Cox charge.

Knicks Go remains formidable

It could happen. If it doesn’t, just fit Knicks Go for his purple and gold flower blanket now and start engraving his name on the Horse of the Year trophy. And if it does, who drives the gravy train home? Here’s a few scenarios involving the leading contenders �?why they can and why they won’t.

Medina Spirit: He’s never finished worse than third and �?like Knicks Go �?once he gets the lead is virtually uncatchable. He’s taken down older horses; see his September Awesome Again win at Santa Anita. But he runs much better on the lead than off it and he doesn’t have the raw speed Knicks Go has. When he stalked in the Preakness, he managed no better than third. When he stalked in the Santa Anita Derby, he managed no better than second. Plus, he simply isn’t fast enough in this field.

Essential Quality: He’s 8-for-9 with a running style that is undefinable because, well, he’s that versatile. He doesn’t need the lead, just an alley to slingshot out of coming around the far turn. From there, the son of Tapit grinds his way to the lead and grinds his opponents down in deep stretch. He has the 10-furlong experience and then some. But the problem with Essential Quality is, while this pace sets up for his stalking style, he hasn’t progressed speed-wise through his 3-year-old season. His remarkably consistent Equibases this year fluctuated between 105 and 109, a mark he’s clocked four times in six races. It will take at least a seven-to-nine point jump to win this race.

How did Max Player become a Classic player?

Max Player: You never thought you’d see his name in this company after a mediocre 3-year-old campaign followed by a 11^th in the Saudi Cup and a sixth in a Pimlico Grade 3. Then, he won the Grade 2 Suburban and the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with 113 Equibases. This was a byproduct of trainer Steve Asmussen turning this one-time closer into a presser/stalker with speed he likely didn’t possess as a sophomore. That wonderful story has a ceiling and this is it. Barring a total pace meltdown, Max Player doesn’t have the speed or ability needed to top your tickets.

Art Collector: If you think Asmussen is the only trainer turnaround artist in this field, we present you Bill Mott. Since owner Bruce Lunsford moved this 4-year-old Bernardino colt to the Hall of Famer’s barn in the summer, Art Collector won the ungraded Alydar Stakes, the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic and the Grade 1 Woodward. He has the speed to run with Knicks Go; his 120 career-best Equibase is tied for the top mark in the field with Hot Rod Charlie. He set the pace in the Alydar and Woodward, then stalked Sleepy Eyes Todd in the Charles Town Classic. But can this 1 ¼-mile first-timer sustain his speed for 10 furlongs? And can that speed translate to the best field he’s ever faced?

So that realistically leaves?

Hot Rod Charlie: He too, has the speed; his 111 Beyer from his Pennsylvania Derby win is the fastest by any 3-year-old and the fastest by any horse not named Knicks Go in this field. His 120 Equibase from that race shares the top spot. His ability to set and sustain blinding fractions over distances (see the Belmont and the Penn Derby) play well here. He’s run 12 furlongs without blinking, but with blinkers. Which brings us to Hot Rod Charlie’s issue. Trainer Doug O’Neill is putting them back on after watching Hot Rod Charlie veer into Midnight Bourbon in the Haskell, then veer out against him in the Penn Derby. Can he run with them and hold a lead like he did in the Haskell (pre-DQ) and Penn Derby? Still, if you’re looking for that upset candidate with value and speed, here’s your likely candidate.

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Name? Hot Rod Charlie had only that cool moniker going for him. Until he nearly pulled off one of the greatest upsets in Breeders’ Cup history. It took one of Essential Quality’s patented stretch rallies to beat the Oxbow colt and the longest shot in the field at the sixteenth pole.

Just like that, Hot Rod Charlie �?paying $51.60 to place and $21.40 to show and all �?was on the radar. He hasn’t left it since.

Now, the hugely popular colt with the cool name has the cool resume to go with it. He comes into the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic �?the highest rent on the high-rent Breeders’ Cup Monopoly board �?as a 4/1 third choice. And he comes in as a trendy pick among bettors who think 5/2 favorite Knicks Go can’t handle 10 furlongs and that 3/1 Essential Quality is vulnerable.

Essential Quality 2, Hot Rod Charlie 1

It’s a big ask, especially the latter, since Essential Quality has beaten Hot Rod Charlie in two of their three races. There was last year’s Juvenile and that epic Belmont Stakes duel, when Essential Quality let Hot Rod Charlie clock insane fractions for the 1 ½-mile race �?only to catch and pass him in deep stretch yet again.

In between, however, Hot Rod Charlie beat his erstwhile rival in the Kentucky Derby by less than a half-length. Yes, he finished third, but he’s one of three horses who crossed a wire before Essential Quality in nine races.

After that Juvenile near-miss, Hot Rod Charlie finished third in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. That’s when trainer Doug O’Neill put blinkers on him as a way to keep him focused.

“We had tried different things with him but things didn’t click until his fourth start, where he went two turns on the dirt with blinkers on (and won),�?Bill Strauss, one of Hot Rod Charlie’s owners, told the Breeders’ Cup notes team. “The light bulb went on.�?/p>

Blinkers on, light bulb on

The Louisiana Derby provided the site for that click. O’Neill left the blinkers on for the two Triple Crown races, then decided to take them off for the Haskell in July. That resulted in Hot Rod Charlie wandering into Midnight Bourbon’s path, then getting disqualified for interference.

One start later, Hot Rod Charlie kept them off for the Pennsylvania Derby. That resulted in the colt’s long-awaited first Grade 1 victory, but a victory not without more controversy. Once again, jockey Flavien Prat and Hot Rod Charlie forced the unlucky Midnight Bourbon out wide coming into the stretch. But this time, stewards let Hot Rod Charlie’s victory stand, despite a foul claim.

“It’s something that after the Pennsylvania Derby, Flavien Prat �?who is just an amazing horseman and knows Hot Rod Charlie so well �?suggested that French up blinkers would benefit him,�?O’Neill told Blood-Horse. “He’s had them on in the past. He can get to wandering sometimes and seeing things. So these little set of blinkers will kind of help him stay a little bit more focused. He’s had them on a bunch, so it shouldn’t be an issue, one way or another.�?/p>

Speed vs. consistency

Hot Rod Charlie’s versatility and adaptability isn’t quite that of his fellow 3-year-old Essential Quality. He is more of a pace-presser and stalker, whereas Essential Quality has successfully shown every running style. But he has more raw speed than Essential Quality.

“We’ve got options,â€�?O’Neill told Santa Anita’s Ed Golden. “He’s shown he can win on the front or from sitting behind, so I like where we’re at. He’s definitely a versatile colt.”

Hot Rod Charlie’s career-best 111 Beyer Speed Figure is second in the field to Knicks Go’s 113. It’s also the fastest Beyer by a 3-year-old at a mile or longer this year. It’s equal to or faster than the Beyers of the last three Classic winners: Authentic (111), Vino Rosso (111) and Accelerate (108). For good measure, Hot Rod Charlie’s 120 Equibase is tied with Art Collector for the top mark on that scale.

And how many people are talking about anyone else’s runner-up finish? Jon White, who wrote the Breeders’ Cup morning line and is an Xpressbet columnist, said Hot Rod Charlie’s Belmont runner-up was one of the most impressive races of the year. He covered the first quarter-mile in 22.78 seconds and the first half in 46.49 �?and only lost by 1 ¾ lengths with a 108 Beyer. The only horse in the 95 previous Belmonts run at 1 ½ miles clocking faster splits than that was Secretariat in 1973.

Can Hot Rod Charlie blaze O’Neill’s trail to the winner’s circle?

Now, you understand how far Hot Rod Charlie came in a year. From 94/1 long shot to 4/1 good shot to bring O’Neill his sixth Breeders’ Cup winner �?and first in the flagship Classic. O’Neill is 0-for-5, sending out Lava Man (2006), Richard’s Kid (2012), Handsome Mike (2012) and Pavel (2017, 2018).

“It’s nine solid horses and nine solid jockeys, so it’s really all a matter of positioning,�?O’Neill said, praising Prat’s riding skill and familiarity with Hot Rod Charlie. “I feel good that we can find ourselves a good spot.�?/p>

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So what to make of this year’s 10-horse field in what is the Breeders’ Cup’s flagship race? And what to make of a field that is more wide open than first glance indicates?

You’ll note that we haven’t mentioned likely favorite Knicks Go, who won his last three races going away. And that partially explains why this year’s Classic has the potential to be a real classic.

The open nature of the Classic leads horseplayers to parsing the speed figures. That, in turn, creates potential value picks for contrarians seeking an alternative to Knicks Go and even likely second favorite Essential Quality.

Go figure: Knicks Go claims top speed marks

Knicks Go comes in with the best career Beyer (113) and best co-Brisnet (111) figures. Leaving him unmolested on the lead is suicide for his rivals �?as we’ve seen time and time again. His last Equibase Speed Figure is a 118, just two behind Hot Rod Charlie and Art Collector. The question for him: can he sustain that blistering early speed over 1 ¼ miles? Knicks Go has never run that distance before.

Hot Rod Charlie has, finishing third in the Kentucky Derby and second to Essential Quality in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes. His career-best 111 Beyer, 110 Brisnet and 120 Equibase all came in his last outing: September’s Pennsylvania Derby. He and Essential Quality are the only horses in the field not named Knicks Go to run multiple Beyers of 107 or greater. From a speed standpoint, the two 3-year-olds are the most consistent front-row contenders in the field.

As for Essential Quality, he turned in those career-best speed figures (107 Beyer and 109 Equibase) in his Travers Stakes victory. His 111 best Brisnet from his Belmont Stakes victory tied Knicks Go for the best in this field. He’s posted that 109 Equibase four times in his last five races.

The question for both: how will they fare against older horses?

Medina Spirit could be speed X-factor

Medina Spirit answered that question in his last start. The other 3-year-old in the Classic field passed that test going away, winning the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes by five lengths last month at Santa Anita. That came at the expense of fellow Classic runners Stilleto Boy (second by five lengths), Express Train (third by seven), Tripoli (fourth by 8 ¼) and Idol (sixth by 16).

Medina Spirit’s career-top Beyer (107), Brisnet (105) and Equibase (110) came along for the ride. He’s clocked 110 Equibases in two of his last four races, including the Kentucky Derby. But his question centers around those top speed figures. His career-best isn’t in the same high-rent district as the top horses in this field.

Art Collector has the numbers to contend here: a 107 Beyer, 108 Brisnet and 120 Equibase that ties Hot Rod Charlie for top marks on that scale. Those came in his Grade 1 breakthrough in the Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park earlier this month. But like Knicks Go, Art Collector has yet to see 10 furlongs.

Breeders’ Cup Classic-Speed Figures

Go past that quintet that figures to take most of the money and there’s two others worthy of some speed figures attention. That’s Tripoli and Max Player.

Tripoli clocked his career-best 104 Beyer, 108 Brisnet and 109 Equibase on this very track over this very distance. That came in August’s Pacific Classic. Tripoli turned in that 109 Equibase three times, including twice in his last four starts.

Max Player rides in with as much form as Knicks Go and Art Collector. He’s won his last two races: the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (at 1 1/4 miles) and Grade 2 Suburban Stakes, with identical 113 Equibases. But his best 102 Beyers aren’t in the same neighborhood as his rivals.

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Darley America, Godolphin’s North American affiliate, announced the pair will join the breeding and racing giant’s Jonabell, Kentucky, farm for the 2022 breeding season. For Essential Quality, the paddock leader for Champion 3-Year-Old, his finale is next week’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. For 4-year-old Maxfield, his final race is the Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26.

Both horses will have their fees set after their retirements from racing.

“To have both Essential Quality and Maxfield coming to Jonabell is as exciting as it gets,” Darley Sales Manager Darren Fox said in a statement. “and to have accomplished what they did as homebreds in the colors of Godolphin makes it even that much more meaningful. They consistently performed at the highest level, and if you add in their outstanding pedigrees and conformation, we feel very confident that their legacy will continue to grow through their future offspring.”

Essential Quality owns four Grade 1 wins

Essential Quality’s pedigree lives up to his name. He’s the son of Tapit out of a Grade 3-placed half-sister to Champion Juvenile Filly and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly winner Folklore. When he captured the Belmont Stakes in June, Essential Quality became Tapit’s record fourth offspring to win the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

The Champion 2-Year-Old of 2020, Essential Quality is 8-for-9, his only blemish being his fourth by a length in the Kentucky Derby. Four of his eight wins were Grade 1s, including the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a 2-year-old, and the Belmont and Travers as a sophomore. His engaging Belmont Stakes victory over Hot Rod Charlie came with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure and made him the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to capture the Belmont.

When Essential Quality won the Travers, he joined Street Sense as only the second horse in the last 30 years to claim Champion 2-Year-Old honors and Saratoga’s “midsummer derby.”

Street Sense common to Essential Quality, Maxfield

Speaking of Street Sense, he’s Maxfield’s father. That means the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up fathered a colt out of the Bernardini mare Velvety who hasn’t missed the board in 10 career starts. He won the Breeders’ Futurity the year before Essential Quality for his lone Grade 1 score to date.

Maxfield owns two seconds and a third in his other Grade 1 outings, including runner-up finishes in the Whitney (to Knicks Go) and Woodward (to Art Collector). He finished third in March’s Santa Anita Handicap to Idol and Express Train. Maxfield’s two other noteworthy victories came in this year’s Stephen Foster and Alysheba, both Grade 2s at Churchill Downs. He’s 7-2-1 going into the Clark.

“In addition to the excitement of two new stallions, we are hearing from breeders a great deal of optimism, especially with the strong sales results this year,” Fox said. “All that said, we are still maintaining moderation when setting our fees with only one of our top-tier stallions returning from last year seeing an uptick in price at this time.”

Darley cuts fees for even its No. 1 stallion

That stallion is Street Sense, who enjoys a bump back up to his 2020 fee of $75,000. Darley lowered his fee to $60,000 for 2021.

Darley’s top stallion, Medaglia D’Oro, will stand for $100,000. That’s a $50,000 cut from his 2021 fee. His progeny own more than 80 group/graded winners worldwide, including Hong Kong Horse of the Year Golden Sixty.

Darley also reduced the fee of last season’s leading first-crop sire, Nyquist. The 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2016 Kentucky Derby champion will stand for $55,000. That’s a cut from the $75,000 breeders paid in 2021, but still greater than the $40,000 bargain Nyquist was in 2020.

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Cox told the Daily Racing Form he’s going to train Essential Quality up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’ll keep the standout 3-year-old colt at his Churchill Downs base, using the Aug. 28 Travers Stakes as his “prep�?for the Classic.

“The plan is to have all his works here,�?Cox told the DRF. “He’ll pretty much work every Saturday from here on in until we leave for Del Mar. It’s 10 weeks from the Travers to the Classic, and that’s just fine.�?/p>

Cox told Horse Racing Nation he’s doing that because Essential Quality hasn’t had much of a break this year. He didn’t race between last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in early November until the late February Southwest Stakes. But, Essential Quality ran roughly every four to five weeks from that point on, save for a seven-week break between his epic Belmont Stakes victory on June 5 and his Jim Dandy score on July 31.

Essential Quality has one loss in nine career races

He’s 5-for-6 this year, winning the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 27, the Blue Grass on April 3, the Belmont, the Jim Dandy, and the Travers on Aug. 28. Sandwiched between the Blue Grass and Belmont was his only career loss — that a fourth by a length in the Kentucky Derby.

Essential Quality’s first workout in almost a month came last Saturday with a 49.40-second half-mile breeze at Churchill Downs that was 54^th of 110 running that distance that day.

Knicks Go, meanwhile, will get in another race before the Classic. Cox told Horse Racing Nation it made more sense to squeeze in a race for the Whitney champion because that race came on Aug. 7, or three weeks before his stablemate’s Travers victory. So, Knicks Go will use the 1 1/8-mile Lukas Classic as his Breeders’ Cup Classic prep.

Knicks Go’s early speed proves problematic for rivals

This year, the 5-year-old Paynter progeny is 3-for-5. His last two races were portraits of dominance: a 10 ¼-length demolition of an outclassed Cornhusker Handicap field (at 3/5) at Prairie Meadows and a 4 ½-length beat-down of a small, but outstanding Whitney field at Saratoga as the even-money favorite. His 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the Cornhusker and his 111 in the Whitney are the best two Beyers of any horse at any distance on a North American track this year.

Knicks Go turned in a 1:12.80 six-furlong breeze at Churchill Downs last Saturday.

That the two roads lead to one destination — Del Mar — in one of the year’s biggest races, provides a testament to Cox’s skill guiding the top 3-year-old and top older horse to this point. Their different running styles are a testament to what kind of race awaits horse racing and horseplayers come the first Saturday of November.

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