The 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Florida Derby offers a hearty helping of Derby Qualifying points: 100 to the winner and 40-20-10 to the rest of the superfecta. It also offers a healthy mix of running styles �?both front-runners and closers can, and have, succeeded here �?and the best field the 2020 Derby Trail has sent out to date.

Hall of Fame Winner’s List

This doesn’t factor in the Florida Derby’s stellar history. This race’s winners roll could fill an equine Hall of Fame wing by itself: Nashua, Northern Dancer, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, Holy Bull, Barbaro, and Nyquist to name a few.

The Florida Derby sent 24 of its runners to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle, more than any other Derby prep. Three Florida Derby winners since 2013 won the Kentucky Derby: Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017). That doesn’t include last year’s Florida Derby winner, Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first but was disqualified.

Need more proof of pedigree? Along with those 24 Kentucky Derbys, Florida Derby runners romped to 19 Preakness Stakes and 16 Belmont Stakes titles. That’s 59 Triple Crown victories coming out of this race.

This is a serious race for handicappers and casual horse racing fans alike. The sheer amount of talent this race attracts means Florida Derby winners demand respect come Derby time, even in an outlier year like this one due to COVID-19 virus-related complications.

COVID-19 Never Far Away

That virus already claimed one participant: Hall-of-Fame jockey Javier Castellano, who took himself off Candy Tycoon and went into self-quarantine after testing positive for the coronavirus on Thursday.

With that, the question becomes, what should we look for in a Florida Derby champion? Start with pace. Four front-runners captured Florida Derbys in the last 10 years. But remember when we talked about different running styles winning this race? Here’s why it pays to pace handicap.

Over the past decade, three closers — Audible, Dialed In, and Ice Box — all came from behind to win. They did so during the three Florida Derby’s with sub-47-second half-mile fractions. If you think a fast early pace from horses such as Ete Indien, As Seen On Tv, and Gouverneur Morris will be too fast, lock into a stalker such as favorite Tiz the Law or Independence Hall. Otherwise, understand speed kills in this race.

Favorites Aren’t Usually Favored At Finish Line

Also, understand that favorites are vulnerable, but long shots are suicide in this race. Eight of the last 10 Florida Derby winners went off at 4.80/1 or shorter odds. The only favorite to win in the last 10 years was Audible in 2018 at 1.60/1. The reason for this is the high caliber of competition you find in this race. This tilts the field away from the likes of 6/5 favorite Tiz the Law and toward horses like Gouverneur Morris and �?possibly, if the odds don’t drop too far from his 4/1 morning line �?Ete Indien.

Speaking of Gouverneur Morris, he’s a Todd Pletcher trainee. Pletcher charges bode very well at Gulfstream, winning five Florida Derbys, including four of the last six (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018). And who better to ride for the hottest trainer in this race than the hottest jockey in this race?

That would be John Velasquez. Since 2009, Velasquez rode in eight Florida Derbys, won five, and finished no worse than third in the other three. Did we mention Velasquez is riding Gouverneur Morris?

Shippers Often Get Sunk

Once you factor all that, look local. In 2016, Santa Anita-based Nyquist became the only carpetbagger in the last 10 years to roll into Gulfstream and steal a Florida Derby title from the locals. Then, look to see who’s coming off a victory, since the last seven Florida Derby winners came in with a last-out trip to the winner’s circle.

Put all those factors together and they lead back to one horse �?Gouverneur Morris. He’s local, coming off an allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs, and has pace-setting and pace-pressing speed. That, along with Pletcher and Velasquez as his key connections, equals value, especially at an 8/1 price that likely will drop before post-time.

Florida Derby Odds

1. As Seen On Tv, 12/1
2. Shivaree, 30/1
3. Disc Jockey, 20/1
4. Soros, 30/1
5. Gouverneur Morris, 8/1
6. Ajaaweed, 20/1
7. Tiz the Law, 6/5
8. My First Grammy, 50/1
9. Independence Hall, 9/2
10. Candy Tycoon, 20/1
11. Sassy But Smart, 50/1
12. Ete Indien, 4/1

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These factors are all givens in the Grade 2, 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, which offers 50-20-10-5 Derby Qualifying points to the top four finishers. Most of those finishers use this race as a stepping-stone to next month’s Grade 1 Florida Derby.

There are other givens in this race, which has produced 13 Kentucky Derby winners including, most recently, Orb in 2013. Out of 96 horses to run both races since 1980, Orb is one of only five horses to win both.

Orb wasn’t favored to win, which brings us to perhaps the most important trend of the Fountain of Youth. Only twice in the last 10 years (Soldat in 2011 and Mohaymen in 2016) has the betting favorite won. That doesn’t bode well for Dennis’ Moment, the current 2/1 favorite.

Trends are Poor for Dennis’ Moment

Should Dennis’ Moment’s odds drop further, the trend becomes even worse. The betting favorite has been odds-on five times in the last eight years. Four of those odds-on favorites lost, with 9/10 Upstart in 2015 drawing an asterisk here for crossing the finish line first, but being disqualified for interference.

Even putting aside his rather manic-depressive history, that’s not Dennis’ Moment’s only problem with history. In the last 10 years, only two eventual winners were making their 3-year-old debut, which the Dale Romans-trainee is doing Saturday.

This doesn’t mean going deep in the weeds and throwing a dart at a long shot. Eight of the last 10 winners went off at 5/1 or less, which turns attention to As Seen On Tv (9/2).

Stay Local

Before Chance It was a late scratch due to his outside post, he and As Seen On Tv factored into another trend: local knowledge. Eight of the last 10 winners prepped for the Fountain of Youth with a January or February race at Gulfstream. Chance It beat As Seen On Tv by a head in the Jan. 4 Mucho Macho Man Stakes, a non-grade stakes race.

As Seen On Tv has a strike against him aside from the tactical — tackling a distance he’s never seen before. Aside from that, he’s racing in a graded stakes for the first time, and only one winner in the last decade (Orb, again) has won the Fountain of Youth in his graded-stakes debut.

Velasquez is Money

The other obstacle those horses â€�?and every other one but Shotski (10/1) — face is not having Velasquez aboard. Velasquez is about as sure a bet as there is in this race, having won it five times, including last year aboard Kentucky Derby runner-up Code of Honor.

In his 12 Fountain of Youth starts, Velasquez has five wins (Orb was one of them), one second, and three thirds, meaning his mounts hit the board 75% of the time.

That is about as glaring an endorsement for including Shotski in your exotics as there is.

Velasquez aside, it also brings us to a horse that checks most of those boxes, and a horse definitely worth consideration: Ete Indien (8/1). The pace-setting colt owns graded-stakes experience at Gulfstream, finishing second to Tiz the Law in the Grade 3 Holy Bull earlier this month, where he was 11 ½ lengths clear of third-place Toledo.

A repeat of his 113 Equibase Speed Figure in that race would put him right in the mix here, although the upgraded competition and outside position (11) complicate matters for jockey Florent Geroux. Along with good value, Ete Indien has the profile, pedigree, and predictability seen in previous Fountain of Youth winners.

2020 Fountain of Youth Odds

1. Candy Tycoon (15/1)
2. Makabim (SCR)
3. Masterday (30/1)
4. The Falcon (50/1)
5. Dennis’ Moment (2/1)
6. As Seen On Tv (9/2)
7. Country Grammer (15/1)
8. Gear Jockey (20/1)
9. Liam’s Lucky Charm (15/1)
10. Shotski (10/1)
11. Ete Indien (8/1)
    
12. Chance It (SCR)

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