After winning his first race in only his fourth start, Leon went 3-for-his-next-67. He became an afterthought on the competitive South Florida circuit. An afterthought who migrated to Ohio and Northern Kentucky in pursuit of better opportunities.

Sometimes, you have to find your level to rise above it. And that’s what Leon did: finding a level that now brings him back to Gulfstream as a full-time rider. Beginning Saturday with six mounts, Leon will ride full-time in South Florida.

Even though Leon spent the last seven years largely riding in horse racing’s minor leagues, finding his level became infinitely easier due to one day in May.

‘Derby winning jockey’

That day, May 7, to be precise, Leon gained the prefix “Kentucky Derby winning jockey.” That day, he piloted Rich Strike — a $30,000 claimer who was 1-for-7 — to victory in America’s biggest race.

Leon did that with a scintillating ride chronicled by NBC’s overhead camera that was brilliant, audacious and incredible all at once. He took Rich Strike from 17th at the mile mark to first with 50 yards to go, using the rail as his GPS.

Just like that Leon became a household name. Unless you were familiar with the jockey colonies of Belterra Park or Mahoning Valley, you couldn’t pick Leon out of a lineup before May 7.

Leon won riding titles — at Belterra and Mahoning Valley

That, even though Leon owns multiple riding titles at Belterra and Mahoning Valley. The 32-year-old journeyman was ranked 11th in wins among North American jockeys in 2021. That he was 66th in earnings tells you the level of races he ran. You didn’t see Leon in big stakes races on the biggest racing days.

Not until the 2022 Derby or Belmont Stakes, where Rich Strike finished sixth.

But you’ll see a lot more of Leon at Gulfstream this time around. He’s getting mounts from the likes of Hall of Famer Mark Casse and the respected Mike Maker. Leon has two mounts for each trainer Saturday, opening for Casse with Carlin Clan in a $35,000 maiden claimer.

Later, he’ll ride Maker’s Over Calendared in a $12,500 maiden claimer. Leon takes Casse’s first-time starter Luka Grazis in the seventh race and wraps up for Maker on Nepoti in the eighth.

Plenty of mounts await

In between, Jose D’Angelo’s She’s Classy awaits in a $12,500 claimer. Leon’s lone stakes mount comes from trainer David Braddy. That’s Easy Come Easy Go in the $75,000 Azalea.

A good day — or several — means Leon’s name could eventually be mentioned in the same breath as fellow Venezuelans Javier Castellano, Junior Alvarado, Leonel Reyes and Emisael Jaramillo.

When it comes to one fact, however, Leon already stands above his more heralded countrymen. None of them — not even a four-time Eclipse Award-winner and Hall of Famer like Castellano — can call themselves a Kentucky Derby winning jockey.

The post Derby-Winning Jockey Sonny Leon Moves On Up to Gulfstream Park appeared first on nrxhb.shop | OG News.

The average daily handle came in at $13,437,509 for the 44-day meet that ended Sunday. According to the New York Racing Association, the average daily handle at Belmont Park’s Spring/Summer meet increased 23.1% since 2019.

The total on-track handle �?reflective of on-track wagering at Big Sandy �?jumped 16.6%, to $57,531,001. That clearly eclipsed last year’s $49,343,664 on-track handle, gleaned in 48 days.

Now, the bad news. All-sources handle for the 44-day meet came in at $591,250,409 �?a nearly 6.5% plunge from last year’s $632,208,251 total. So the average daily handle increased and on-track handle increased, but the total all-sources handle dropped by more than $40 million.

What happened on Belmont Stakes Day?

The head-scratching numbers carried over to the Belmont Stakes and its massive 13-race, eight-Grade 1 event card. All-sources handle for this year’s Belmont Stakes checked in at $50,248,624. That’s a 16.8% plunge from 2021. The Belmont Stakes Day card produced $98,766,906 in all-sources handle, a 12.3% drop from last year’s $112,725,278.

That’s even more puzzling given last year’s attendance was limited to only 11,238 due to state health guidelines. This year’s attendance came in at 46,301. Belmont Park’s current capacity is 50K, due to the construction of the nearby UBS Arena.

Regardless, the presence of equine stars like Flightline, Jack Christopher, Malathaat, and Letruska on undercard races was likely offset by a mediocre Belmont Stakes field. Not even improbable Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike, local eventual winner Mo Donegal, or filly Nest could inspire casual bettors.

Field size drop modest, but concerning

Along with that, Belmont Park suffered what a lot of tracks are enduring: a drop in average field size. This year’s average field size was 7.35, a modest 3.6% drop from last year’s 7.62. The NYRA ran 419 races during the 2022 Spring/Summer meet, with 233 occurring on dirt, 186 on the turf, and 26 moved off the turf due to weather.

Likely good news awaits the NYRA this week, however, with the start of the meet at Saratoga. The lucrative summer meet begins Thursday and runs through Labor Day, Sept. 5.

The post Mixed Messages Define Belmont Park’s Spring/Summer Handle appeared first on nrxhb.shop | OG News.

First, the manic. Last week, I enjoyed one of the biggest highlights as a horseplayer: I hit my first Pick 5. That came in Canterbury Park’s All-Stakes Pick 5 from its Northern Stars Turf Festival. It came on a wager I rarely make: long horizontals. Those are your Pick 4s, Pick 5s and Pick 6s. I’ve never bet a Pick 6 and this was only my third Pick 5 wager.

The first came two years ago at Assiniboia Downs in Canada, where I hit the first three races and had ALL in the fifth. I just needed to get past the fourth, where I had two horses. One of those was on the lead entering the stretch, whereupon he stopped running and finished third. The second came last year at Santa Anita Park, where I didn’t get past the second race.

This time, I decided to take the plunge because after I wrote about the Northern Stars Turf Festival for OG News, I delved even deeper into the races. I checked Equibase Speed Figures and past performances of many of the horses in the fields. Then, I watched a video featuring Canterbury Park’s official handicapper Angela Hermann. Being a local and knowing Canterbury Park’s horses and trainers, Hermann brought an insider’s knowledge I lacked to the races I needed help on.

Picking the top four finishers was a nice closing touch

It worked. One by one, my horses came home. Being superstitious about these things, I wouldn’t watch any of the races on my phone app. No, I’d monitor them race by race after they were official. After She Can’t Sing, one of the two horses I had in the Lady Canterbury Stakes, won the third leg, I started feeling pretty good. When Mr. Dumas won the Mystic Lake Mile: the fourth leg, I started feeling giddy.

That’s because I knew I had the winner in the fifth and final leg: the featured Mystic Lake Derby. One of my four horses on my ticket was going to win this. And he did.

Not only did I have the winner, Stitched, I also had the 2-3-4 horses: Bens Malice, Heaven Street and Dowagiac Chief.

Hitting my first Pick 5 moves up the board to one of my greatest horseplayer experiences. It ranks up there with winning Derby future bets on American Pharoah (at 15/1)  to win the 2015 Derby and Nyquist (20/1)  to win the 2016 Derby.

From horseplayer high to horseplayer low

And it came 6 ½ weeks after I endured one of my most frustrating and depressing moments as a horseplayer: the 2022 Kentucky Derby. In between, I enjoyed basically a break-even two days on the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, winning money on the Preakness and losing some — but cashing tickets — on the Belmont. But it was that Derby that rankles me to this day.

As most of you who read this space know, I’m heavy into speed handicapping. It’s the foundation of racing, i.e. horses with higher speed figures tend to run faster than those with lower figures. We’re not splitting the atom here, folks. When I’m looking at a seven-horse race or a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, speed provides a base starting point for me when I’m breaking it down.

Which brings me to this year’s Derby, easily one of the most frustrating races I’ve ever bet on. As many of you know, I break down the Triple Crown races horse by horse. When I do this, I start with speed figures. That makes it easy to cull the herd and eliminate the horses who simply aren’t fast enough to win a Triple Crown race.

Speed plus trends helps cull the herd

From there, I go into established trends that last over time. Trends like Jennie Rees’ Final Fractions Theory, which illustrates that horses who run sub-13-second final furlongs or 38-second final three furlongs in their last Derby prep tend to run better in the Kentucky Derby than those who don’t. Trends like Jon White’s Derby Strike System, which give strikes to horses based on failing to meet certain criteria. The fewer strikes, the better a horse’s chances for wearing roses.

The final piece is race dynamics. Who is the front-end speed? Who will push that front-end speed and are they fast and tactical enough to sustain that speed? Which running styles tend to win those races and which ones don’t? When you looked at the 2022 Derby and understood that one closer (Orb in 2013) won the Derby since that year’s beginning of the points era, you knew to eliminate that genus automatically.

Everything pointed toward a Messier, an Epicenter, a Taiba as your likely winner. There would be a closer or two in the vertical exotics, a Zandon or a Mo Donegal. I personally loved Simplification in the mix, so I constructed my exacta and trifecta tickets with a mix of the above horses, along with a few long shots like Florida Derby winner White Abarrio on the back end. These were the horses with the best running styles and speed figures for a modern Derby. They were the genus of horses who win 21^st century Derbies.

Until they weren’t.

A manic Derby party turned depressive

I watched the Derby at a local bar â€�?Sammy’s in Lake Forest, CA. — that offered simulcast wagering. The place was understandably packed with horseplayers of every species, age and gender. At approximately 4 p.m. PT, it was also understandably and for the most part packed with cranky and feral horseplayers tearing up tickets in waves.

That’s because Rich Strike: a $30,000 claimer who needed a 11^th-plus hour scratch the day before to get into the field, somehow won the Kentucky Derby.

Rich Strike, 350-1
Cleaning out some stuff, noticed @CircaSports Ky Derby odds from 12.29.21#MamaMia

— Rob Miech (@robmiech) May 25, 2022

He did so at the longest-shot-in-the-field, carrying 80.80/1 odds. He did so with subpar speed figures, nothing north of 96 on the Equibase chart in seven races. That included Rich Strike’s 77 for his 17 ½-length romp in his one victory �?that $30,000 claimer in September 2021. It also included his three forgettable Derby preps: fifth in the Gun Runner (by 14 lengths), fourth in the John Battaglia (by three) and third in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby (by six), the only graded one of the bunch.

He had zero business winning the Kentucky Derby from any reasonable handicapping standpoint. And yet, largely thanks to a pace meltdown and a great ride by Sonny Leon, here we were.

The horseplayer definition of a bad beat

What made this particularly aggravating were my two trifecta tickets. Both had Epicenter, Zandon and Simplification in the 1-2-3 holes. They finished 2-3-4. Oh, and here’s the place where I should mention Simplification went off at 35.30/1. Even with Epicenter the 4.10/1 favorite and Zandon not far behind at 6.10/1, this would have been a sweet trifecta â€�?times two.

Instead it wasn’t. All because of a colt who came out of nowhere to run out of his mind. And send this horseplayer �?and many, many others �?out of their collective skins. As I walked out of Sammy’s, gobsmacked, cranky and feral, a crankier and more feral gentleman walking out with me said, “This is bull. Next year, I’m going to bet every long shot. Why the hell not?�?/p>

Historically, the Belmont is the TC race that seems to be least influenced by novice/dumb money. Of course Rich Strike's Derby upset may have changed that, as the Preakness betting was bizarre. But I tend to think that was reactionary and not some lasting new trend.

— David Aragona (@HorseToWatch) June 7, 2022

The moral of the manic-depressive story is familiar to every horseplayer alive. You can break a race down every possible way. As a horseplayer, you can take every variable into account and bet accordingly, constructing your tickets with the care of a scholar reading the Dead Sea Scrolls.

Sometimes it works and you hit your very first Pick 5. And sometimes �?many times �?it doesn’t and you curse the racing gods for the horseplayer’s version of the bad beat.

Until the next race.

The post The Highs and Lows of Being a Horseplayer, Pick 5s to Derby Downers appeared first on nrxhb.shop | OG News.

Now, Repole has another Belmont Stakes to replay over and over. The one where his Mo Donegal won Repole his first Belmont Stakes Saturday at Belmont Park. Oh, and the same race where Repole’s filly Nest finished three lengths back in second.

We need more Mike Repole’s in horse racing. Hope there is a Derby with his name on it. #BelmontStakes

— Darin Zoccali (@atTheTrack7) June 11, 2022

“It’s a 40-year dream. Coming to this track and Aqueduct, being a kid from New York, this is New York’s race,�?Repole told the New York Racing Association. “In 2011, I came in second with Stay Thirsty and I watched the replay 150 times I will no longer watch that replay. Getting a first and a second here, it makes up for it. This was the biggest goal of my racing life, and I just accomplished it and I ran 1-2.�?/p>

Mo Donegal’s come-from-behind victory as the 5/2 favorite paid $7.20, $3.80 and $3 on a $2 wager. It marked the third consecutive year and the fourth time in five years the favorite prevailed. At 5/1, Nest paid $5.30 and $4.10. Skippylongstocking, who nudged out pace-setter We the People for third at 11/1, paid $5.60.

Nest’s ears say it all-she’s angry she had to settle for 2nd in the @BelmontStakes, but props to Mo Donegal’s connections & our partner in Nest, Mike Repole. Couldn’t be more proud of Nest, @PletcherRacing @jose93_ortiz & our partners! She was gallant in defeat!#EclipseFillies pic.twitter.com/gdzRGoX0Xj

— Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners (@EclipseTBP) June 12, 2022

The $2 exacta paid a modest $27.60, the $1 trifecta $187.50. According to Xpressbet, this is the fifth time in the last six years that the $1 trifecta paid $312 or less.

Pletcher wins his third Belmont Stakes since 2013

The victory gave trainer Todd Pletcher his fourth Belmont Stakes title and first since Tapwrit in 2017. Mo Donegal was Pletcher’s first favorite to win the “Test of the Champion.�?Nest’s runner-up finish was the seventh by a Pletcher charge since 2006.

Irad Ortiz Jr. put Mo Donegal on a textbook trip for the closer. As expected, We the People wasted no time taking the lead and setting the pace �?a moderate one at that. As the lone front-end speed, We the People clocked splits of 23.99 seconds (quarter-mile), 48.49 (half-mile) and 1:13.23 (three-quarters) on a fast track.

Yet, he couldn’t shake Skippylongstocking, who stubbornly clung to We the People all the way down the backstretch. Meanwhile, Nest �?who got off to a troubled start �?began advancing down the rail on the backstretch. By the turn, she was in third.

Brother act finishes the Belmont Stakes 1-2

We the People led by a half-length after a mile and by a head after 1 ¼ miles. Meanwhile, as the pace-setter tired, Ortiz sent Mo Donegal approaching the quarter-pole. He went four wide at the top of the stretch and powered past We the People and Skippylongstocking at the three-sixteenths mark. Ortiz’s brother, Jose, drafted off Mo Donegal, following his path.

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, when Mo Donegal endured a brutal trip brought largely to him by a rail post �?yet still finished fifth �?there was clear sailing to the wire. He completed the 1 ½ miles in 2:28.29.

Moments like this >>>>>>>>>

Mo Donegal + @iradortiz = 🧡💙 @BelmontStakes pic.twitter.com/r8IIetNqTe

— NYRA (🌳) (@TheNYRA) June 11, 2022

“Last time in the Derby, he didn’t have the best trip and he still got beat by (only three or five lengths,�?Ortiz Jr. said. “I knew if I got a better trip, he could get there. When I asked him in the clear, he took off.�?/p>

Rich Strike had no miracles remaining

As for We the People, trainer Rodolphe Brisset thinks 12 furlongs was a bridge or two too far for his colt.

“We had everything the way we wanted. I just think the mile and a half was just too long, you know,�?he said. “That would be our first guess to why he ran like that. There’s nothing you can do �?you have to try and he went in 48 and two-fifths and 1:13 and it was just too long for him.�?/p>

As for 80/1 Derby winner and NYRA poster child Rich Strike, he never got untracked en route to finishing sixth out of eight. Trainer Eric Reed said if 4/1 Rich Strike was far behind early, he was done. After being last through a mile, the fractious colt â€�?who was bouncing and circling on his way to the gate — was quite done. He finished 13 ¼ lengths behind Mo Donegal.

“We were hoping we could have been a little closer and our pace was slow,�?Reed said. “Our biggest change was deciding to stay a little off the rain and try to give him a good, open run where he could take off. The whole way, his head turned and he was trying to get to the inside. I guess we made a mistake not putting him on the fence.�?/p>

Mo Donegal in the hunt for an Eclipse Award

Mo Donegal’s victory was his second this year, buttressing his Grade 2 Wood Memorial score. He became the first horse since Empire Maker in 2003 to win the Wood Memorial and Belmont. Mo Donegal is now 4-0-2 in seven races. The $800,000 payday bumped his career earnings to $1,511,800.

MO DONEGAL WINS THE 154TH BELMONT STAKES! pic.twitter.com/LNKIb9dB69

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) June 11, 2022

The Belmont Stakes Day card brought NYRA an all-sources handle of $98,766,906. That represents a drop of 12.3% from 2021’s $112,700,000 handle. All-sources handle for the Belmont Stakes came in at $50,248,624. That’s a 10% plunge from last year’s $60,459,330.

The three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, which started Thursday and offered 17 stakes and 33 races, checked in at $127,810,604.

On-track handle for the Saturday card was $9,530,303. This is hampered by the fact that Belmont Park’s current capacity is only 50,000, due to the construction of nearby UBS Arena. NYRA reported paid attendance of 46,301 Saturday.

The post Getting His Mo On, Favorite Mo Donegal Captures 154th Belmont Stakes appeared first on nrxhb.shop | OG News.

It isn’t.

It sounds counterintuitive, doesn’t it? Send horses 1 ½ miles �?the longest distance any of them will ever run and it’s closer bait, right? Send them those 12 furlongs around a big track with deeper sand that wears on a modern Thoroughbred’s spindly legs and a deep closer is a natural, right?

No.

The only closer to win the Belmont since 2010 was Creator in 2016. He was one of only three horses since then to win from the back half of the field, joining stalker-deluxe Essential Quality last year and Sir Winston in 2019. In fact, according to Equibase, 13 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners were within 4 ½ lengths of the leader after the first half mile.

More trends? Yes, there are

That’s one trend to watch when you watch the 154^th Belmont Stakes, the centerpiece of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. One of eight Grade 1 races on Saturday’s card, the Belmont Stakes is the 11^th race, with an expected post time of 6:44 p.m. ET.

This year’s Belmont Stakes sends out an eight-horse field, the lightest field of the 2022 Triple Crown races. It sends out three horses from the Kentucky Derby: 80/1 upset winner Rich Strike, fifth-place Mo Donegal and sixth-place Barber Road. Two more come from the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago: third-place Creative Minister and fifth-place Skippylongstocking.

There are other trends worth following when sifting through the myriad of contestants attempting 12 furlongs on a huge track. Perhaps the most important one is pedigree.

Who’s your daddy makes a difference

Bloodlines matter here. Do they ever. Look at the pedigrees of recent Belmont Stakes winners and you find 14 of the last 15 came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of nine furlongs or farther. Before you ask, the Belmont Stakes go-to sire: Tapit, doesn’t have a horse in this year’s Belmont Stakes. That means he can’t extend his record of Belmont Stakes-winning progeny to five. But he is the sire of two sires with sons in the race: Constitution (We the People) and Race Day (Barber Road).

The other trend to pay attention to is the toteboard. Essential Quality’s victory over Hot Rod Charlie last year made it four winning favorites in the last seven years. Two others: Tacitus (2019) and Irish War Cry (2017) finished second. But according to Xpressbet, the average winner odds over the last 20 years is 13.48/1. Those four winning favorites: Essential Quality, Tiz the Law (2020), Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015) were the only favorites in the last 15 years running to their odds.

Belmont Stakes is the ‘Test of the Handicapper’

When a favorite doesn’t prevail, someone at juicy odds does. Four times in the last decade, the winning horse came in at 10/1 or greater odds. A fifth (Tonalist) was 9/1. This is where you find Sir Winston (10.20/1), Creator (16.40/1), Palace Malice (13.80/1), Ruler On Ice (24.75/1), Drosselmeyer (13/1). Go back to the Aughts and there’s Summer Bird (11.90/1), Da’Tara (38.50/1) and the biggest upset in Belmont Stakes history: 70.25/1 Sarava in 2002.

With that, OG News breaks down our field for Saturday’s race in categories, worst to first. The listed odds are the morning-line odds.

Why are you here?

Skippylongstocking (Post 2-20/1): Here, we begin with one of the two Preakness ex-pats, one coming in off that fifth in the Triple Crown’s second jewel �?by a barely noticeable 7 ½ lengths. We also have the most experienced horse in the field: 10 races. That experience produced in-the-money finishes in half of his starts (2-1-2). Conspicuous with their absence in that record are stakes victories, of which Skippylongstocking has none. His best stakes finish was a third to Mo Donegal and Early Voting in the Wood Memorial, where he finished a non-threatening 3 ¾ lengths back. As always, we applaud trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s dogged determination sending this son of 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator out for only his third start outside his native Gulfstream Park habitat �?and second Triple Crown outing. Like Barber Road, he’s a grinder who leaves every ounce of his limited talent on the track. In this company, the best scenario for that grinding is the bottom of the superfecta.

History suggests you take a flier

Barber Road (Post 8-10/1): Another race, another day for Barber Road to outrun his odds and grind his way to yet another where-did-he-come-from finish. He did this in the Derby, finishing sixth at 60.40/1, less than five lengths behind Rich Strike. He did this in the Arkansas Derby, finishing second at 10/1. Barber Road kept the plot in the Southwest Stakes, finishing second at 11.80/1. You get the idea. But what is missing from this grinding closer’s trend of never taking a race off is actually winning a stakes race: graded or otherwise. Barber Road is 0-for-6 in stakes contests, although he does have four seconds and a third. He also has Eclipse Award-winning jockey Joel Rosario �?he of the two Belmont wins since 2014 �?in the irons. What Rosario will do is no secret: let Barber Road hang in the rear of the field, then turn the jets on at the top of the stretch and hope he can do what he usually does: pick off tired horses and grab a piece of the board. This may work �?to a point. Barber Road will be on many tickets as a dark-horse because he’s 6-for-9 hitting the board. But there are better closers with more speed keeping him from the upper echelon of the board.

Golden Glider (Post 7-20/1): Believe it or not, there’s plenty to like here â€�?once you take your eyes off Golden Glider’s base-metal record on the Derby trail. Not that this is easy to do, seeing his fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby by three lengths and fourth by nearly seven in the Blue Grass Stakes. And yes, Golden Glider’s pedestrian speed figures â€�?nothing north of his 99 Equibase in the Tampa Bay Derby â€�?aren’t exactly glittering off the page. He did manage to stay with We the People for six furlongs of the Peter Pan, the Belmont Stakes’ prep. And then, We the People decided enough was enough and pulled away to win by more than 10. So why aren’t we talking about fool’s gold here? Well, pedigree, for starters. Golden Glider is the son of former Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who did win a Grade 1 at further than nine furlongs. And history for another. Trainer Mark Casse brought the ignored Sir Winston into the 2019 Belmont at 10/1 and came out with his first Belmont Stakes title. It’s not out of the realm for Golden Glider to follow the trend of double-digit, well-bred afterthoughts stealing the Belmont Stakes. Given all of the above, it’s not likely he steals anything north of the superfecta. But haven’t we seen stranger things this spring?

No. Not again

Rich Strike (Post 4-7/2): Did someone ask about stranger things this spring? If our Kentucky Derby winner was a human being, he’d be a Kardashian, given the amount of attention NYRA’s communications department has showered on him. They chronicled every move, trot, twitch and step of the Derby winner, starting with having video of him getting off the van when he arrived at Belmont Park — at 1 a.m. It’s a good thing his fellow Belmont Stakes contenders weren’t paying attention, lest they do more than kick dirt in Rich Strike’s face Saturday. And make no mistake, Rich Strike will face plenty of kickback. He’ll also face a pace scenario nowhere near the incendiary one that allowed him to rally from 15^th after a mile to steal the Derby from Epicenter 50 yards from the wire. NYRA giving Rich Strike the Triple Crown-in waiting treatment is understandable to a degree. It’s not every day you get an 80/1 Derby winner as your main storyline whose connections felt the Belmont Stakes was a better fit. Should Rich Strike validate that Derby win, he’ll be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch in 1995. That said, no horse has won the Derby, skipped the Preakness and captured the Belmont. The last to try? Gato del Sol, in 1982. He finished second in the Belmont Stakes. Along with that, you’re asking us to take 7/2 (or worse) on a stone-cold closer who went off at 80/1 five weeks ago? A horse who is 0-for-5 outside Churchill Downs? We’ll need more than good works and People Magazine-like coverage to snap that bet off.

The Wild Card 2.0

Creative Minister (Post 5-6/1): Remember before the Preakness, when we said we honestly can’t gauge where Creative Minister would wind up, given his limited body of work? After his gritty third in the Preakness, behind Early Voting and Epicenter, we’re still at a creative loss trying to figure out where Creative Minister fits here. Like Golden Glider, Barber Road and Skippylongstocking, this son of Creative Cause doesn’t own a stakes win on the CV. His 99 Equibase was nine points lower than that 108 he clocked in his scintillating Churchill Downs allowance win. And even with that third, he never threatened the two horses in front of him. There’s also the fact that only three horses in the last 20 years came out of the Preakness and won the Belmont Stakes. And two of those: American Pharoah and Justify, won the Triple Crown. That this is his third race in five weeks �?and only fifth overall �?makes you wonder why he’s this high here. He’s this high because we trust Kenny McPeek as much as any trainer. “He’s been a horse who has handled whatever level we’ve taken him to. Good horses do that. It seems like if he can step forward one more time, he’s right there,�?McPeek said. And 20 years ago, guess who was right there with 70/1 Sarava? Yep, McPeek.

Expect them to be there

Nest (Post 3-8/1): Often lost in the Triple Crown trainer chatter is the fact that Todd Pletcher is to the Belmont Stakes as Bob Baffert is to the Kentucky Derby and D. Wayne Lukas is to the Preakness Stakes. This is the New York-based Pletcher’s domain in more ways than one. He greeted three of his charges in the Belmont Park winner’s circle: Tapwrit (2017), Palace Malice (2013) and filly Rags to Riches (2007). None of them were favored. Go back to 2006 and you find Pletcher has six Belmont runners-up and three more who finished third. Simply put, you want a Pletcher charge on your tickets. And speaking of fillies, Nest has many of the elements to join Rags to Riches on Pletcher’s Belmont trophy mantle. She has the pedigree: Curlin, out of graded stakes-winner Marion Ravenswood, a product of A.P. Indy, who has the second-fastest Belmont Stakes time in history. Her Equibase Speed Figures, with a peak of 102 set last out in her Kentucky Oaks runner-up finish, put her in the mix. Nest has never finished out of the trifecta (4-1-1), and her last two wins came by a combined 14 ¼ lengths. Yes, she’s a filly who finished behind Secret Oath in the Oaks �?the same Secret Oath who finished fourth in the Preakness. But we’ll climb back on that limb once again. “We nominated her for the Triple Crown back in January because we’ve had this type of race in mind for her. She has a strong pedigree for hit and a lot of ability,�?Pletcher said. With Pletcher’s record and Nest’s pedigree and tactical speed, who are we to argue?

Mo Donegal (Post 6-5/2): Say “hello�?to the best closer in the field, a colt who would have topped more Derby tickets had he not drawn the dreaded rail. Even with that cursed post and a nightmare trip that pushed Mo Donegal outside after he was pushed back early, Mo Donegal finished a solid fifth: only 3 ¾ lengths back. Along the way, he made up 17 lengths and 14 places. That was the only off-the-board finish in Mo Donegal’s six-race career (3-0-2). Pedigree snobs may sniff at sire Uncle Mo, who wasn’t a distance sire. But on Mo Donegal’s dam’s side, you’ve got the likes of A.P. Indy and Tabasco Cat, who make up for that perceived bloodline shortcoming. Meanwhile, you’ve also got a Belmont Park winner over 1 1/16 miles who owns two graded stakes victories: the Grade 3 Remsen and Grade 2 Wood Memorial, where he beat Preakness winner Early Voting. Mo Donegal. Yes, he’s a closer in a race unkind to that genus. But someone’s gotta finish second and a colt trained by a three-time Belmont Stakes-winning trainer in Pletcher is never a bad place to go.

The Pick

We the People (Post 1-2/1): As is our custom, let’s preamble We the People’s flaws. He takes a huge step up in class from his 10 ¼-length Peter Pan romp. The last time he tried Grade 1 company â€�?at the Arkansas Derby â€�?his trip was anything but domestic tranquility: a miserable seventh. At anywhere around his 2/1 morning line odds, he is anything but a perfect union in terms of value, especially in this field. And yes, 11 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes favorites lost the plot. Now, that posterity of this Constitution colt established, here’s why you’re looking at the likely winner of the 2022 Belmont Stakes. First, he romped to that Peter Pan at Big Sandy. Winning a race at Belmont Park, with its soft sand and sweeping turns, can’t be overestimated. Second, you can draw a line through that Arkansas Derby, since We the People did not secure the blessings of a good trip. He got sucked five wide into the first turn and four wide into traffic throughout. That seventh is the only time We the People did not win a race in four outings. And finally, the most important reason: We the People is the lone speed in the Belmont Stakes field. With Flavien Prat at the controls, expect We the People to bolt out quick from his rail post and use his speed as a common defense against his rivals â€�?all of whom are closers of varying abilities. If he gets into a comfortable rhythm, especially if it rains — and there’s a 30% chance it will Saturday — We the People’s general welfare will include a Belmont Stakes title. And after you see new minority owner Bobby Flay in the winner’s circle, you can cue up this catchy song in We the People’s honor.

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Post positions were drawn and morning line odds established for Saturday’s 154th Belmont Stakes. That 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion” offers a $1.5 purse and headlines a 13-race card that offers eight Grade 1s.

The Belmont also offers the return of Rich Strike, who’s running again five weeks after he shocked the sporting world with his stunning 80/1 Derby victory. He’ll leave Post 4 at considerably shorter odds than he left Post 20 at Churchill Downs. Rich Strike opens as the 7/2 third choice. Once again, Sonny Leon takes the reins in a race that trainer Eric Reed circled before the Triple Crown season began.

The Keen Ice colt is trying to be the first non-Triple Crown winner to take the Derby and the Belmont Stakes since Thunder Gulch in 1995. Should he pull it off, Rich Strike would be the 12th horse to do so. He bypassed the Preakness because, according to Reed, Rich Strike is an anal-retentive equine when it comes to scheduling.

Rich Strike rich on routine

“If you break his schedule, he’s not happy, and we had to change it a little bit coming here by going out a little bit later,” Reed told the New York Racing Association at the post position draw. “But he likes that. He takes a nap every day between 6:30 and 7:30 while we get ready for him to go out to the track, and then he’s all business.”

All business described We the People’s last outing: a 10 1/4-length romp with a field-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure in the Grade 3 Peter Pan. Should the Constitution colt win the Belmont Stakes from his rail post, he’ll be the ninth horse to win both the prep and the Belmont Stakes.

“He doesn’t need to lead. On paper, it looks like he could be on the lead. We got the one hole, but there’s nothing I can do about it,” trainer Rodolphe Brisset said. “I’m sure (jockey) Flavien (Prat) will do what he has to do.â€�?/p>

Second choice Mo Donegal was overseas favorite

Slotting in between those two on the Belmont Stakes morning line is 5/2 second choice Mo Donegal. He returns after his fifth in the Derby, which came with a furious rally from 19th to fifth — one where the Wood Memorial and Remsen winner made up 17 lengths.

“The last time in the Derby, he just hopped away from there. Hopefully, he gets away cleanly and, hopefully, doesn’t compromise his chances with a poor start,” trainer Todd Pletcher said.

Mo Donegal leaves from Post 6 with Irad Ortiz Jr. back in the saddle. The pair will try becoming the first to win the Wood Memorial and Belmont Stakes since Empire Maker in 2003.

There’s a Belmont Stakes filly sighting

Pletcher is also sending out filly Nest (8/1), who joins her stablemate chasing Pletcher’s fourth Belmont Stakes title. At the same time, she’ll leave Post 3 trying to add her name to a short list of Belmont Stakes-winning fillies. The last of three to do that was Pletcher’s Rags to Riches in 2007.

“She’s a strong galloper and she’s got super stamina, so we nominated her for the Triple Crown back in January because we’ve had this type of race in mind for her,” Pletcher said. “She has a strong pedigree for it and a lot of ability.”

2022 Belmont Stakes Post Positions and Morning Line

Creative Minister, one of two Preakness runners coming in for the Belmont Stakes — 20/1 Skippylongstocking is the other — leaves Post 5 at 6/1. The third-place Preakness finisher comes into Belmont Park seeking trainer Kenny McPeek’s second Belmont Stakes. And Creative Minister will do so at considerably shorter odds than McPeek’s Belmont Stakes winner: 70/1 Sarava 20 years ago.

“He needed to move forward and he did that in that race (the Preakness),” McPeek said. “He’s been a horse who has handled whatever level we’ve taken him to. Good horses do that. It seems like if he can step forward one more time, he’s right there.”

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The Derby winner, along with exercise rider Gabriel Lagunes and outrider Juan Galvez and his pony, took a two-lap jaunt around Belmont Park’s exercise track.

Afterward, trainer Eric Reed outlined Rich Strike’s schedule going forward. He’s planned paddock schooling in the mornings, before training on the main track.

“He’s so routine-oriented. We’re in a new place, so we can set his routine here and, in two days, he’ll be fine,” Reed told the New York Racing Association. “He settled down a lot the second time around. A lot of that was trying to get him used to the pony. You could see the farther he went, the better he accepted the pony. I think by the end of the week, they’ll be good buddies and on race day, he needs a buddy.”

Rich Strike put on a Memorial Day show

This won’t include a breeze. Not after Rich Strike treated Churchill Downs’ Memorial Day crowd to a 59-second, five-furlong breeze. This included a six-furlong gallop out in 1:12.

“He got away real (sic) well and worked exactly like we wanted him to do,” Reed told Churchill Downs’ Kevin Kerstein after the breeze. “The track was a little quicker since it was in the afternoon, but it was exactly what we wanted to do. Yesterday, he was starting to relax in the morning. After some time away from the races, that’s sort of what we’ve seen from him. There’s no doubt about his confidence. We’ve seen him come off the track in [the] mornings more playful. It’s like he knows what he did in the Derby. I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of him.”

Race purists are still cranky they didn’t see Rich Strike at the May 21 Preakness. Reed and owner Rick Dawson opted to skip the Triple Crown’s middle jewel because of the colt’s schedule.

Win the Derby and everyone wants a piece

Because of the events of May 7 at Churchill Downs — which even Reed and Dawson never saw coming — Rich Strike’s absence at Pimlico was noticed. You don’t win America’s most-watched race at 80.80/1 and go gently into the woodwork.

“We didn’t plan on the Preakness because we didn’t plan on winning the Derby,” Reed said. “We just wanted to show at the Derby that we could compete at the Belmont and then he wins the Derby, so then we had to think about it. But I go back to the race at New Orleans (the December Gun Runner) and I know what happened there when he was out of routine, and I knew the Preakness would be a disaster.

“All his races have to be planned out with distance and the type of track because there’s some tracks where it’s real (sic) difficult to close at a mile-and-a-quarter, even. Everything we do has to be thought out real good. His running style makes it hard to win any race and everyone expects him to win them all now.”

The Belmont was always the target

This marked the first time since Spend a Buck in 1985 that a healthy Derby winner bypassed the Preakness. That year, Spend a Buck’s connections chased a $2 million bonus for winning the Jersey Derby instead of chasing potential history.

Last year’s Derby winner, Mandaloun, skipped both the Preakness and Belmont, but he wasn’t the Derby winner when he bypassed both races. That was the late Medina Spirit, who crossed the Derby finish line first, then finished third in the Preakness two weeks later. Nine months later, Median Spirit was stripped of his Derby title after testing positive for the banned-on-race-day anti-inflammatory betamethasone.

That said, the Belmont was always Reed’s Triple Crown target. His future Rich Strike target going forward is the Aug. 27 Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Considering that’s the stated target of Derby/Preakness runner-up Epicenter, along with Preakness winner Early Voting and Derby third-place finisher Zandon, the Travers could be the sophomore race of the year.

“The owners always wanted to run him in the Travers and I think that’s a good spot for him,” Reed said.

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“Skipping the Preakness was still one of the toughest decisions I had to make as a trainer,�?Reed told Churchill Downs Saturday morning. “I just don’t think he would’ve been mentally ready to run against those horses again.�?/p>

Instead, the Kentucky Derby champion returned to the work tab, two weeks after his improbable Derby shocker at 80/1. With Reed and owner Rick Dawson watching, Rich Strike clocked a solid half-mile in 47.20 seconds. That was the seventh-best of 138 running that distance.

Exercise rider Gabe Lagunes put Rich Strike through a 22.80-second opening quarter-mile breeze. He galloped the Derby winner out five furlongs in 1:00.60.

Reed delays Rich Strike’s departure date

That helped convince Reed to keep Rich Strike in his Barn 17 at Churchill Downs until May 31. He originally planned on vanning the colt to Belmont Park this week, but Reed liked what he saw Saturday, planning another work for Memorial Day, May 30.

“He does so well here, I just didn’t want to change anything yet,�?Reed said. “He’ll get eight or nine days at Belmont to gallop and get used to the surface.�?/p>

The Belmont Stakes was originally Reed’s Triple Crown target for Rich Strike. That was until D. Wayne Lukas scratched Ethereal Road five minutes before the Friday, May 6 deadline for finalizing the field. Reed put Rich Strike in the race, then watched the colt snatch and grab the win in the second-biggest upset in Derby history.

Sonny Leon, who piloted Rich Strike to that Derby win with a riding clinic over the last quarter-mile, will take the reins again for the June 11 Belmont Stakes. Leon recently served a four-day suspension imposed by Thistledown Racecourse stewards for careless riding in an April 27 race.

In that race, stewards determined Leon “deliberately and aggressively�?moved One Glamorous Gal toward the rail. That interfered with another horse, disqualifying One Glamorous Gal from third to sixth.

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And Armagnac obliged. The California colt wasted no time taking the lead, providing Early Voting with the target he needed to run with �?and run at. And once that happened, Early Voting’s speed eventually did the rest, giving him what he needed to win the Preakness Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

Early Voting’s 1 ¼-length victory over 6/5 favorite Epicenter gave Brown and owner Seth Klarman their second Preakness in five years. It gave Epicenter his second runner-up finish in a Triple Crown race. And it came via the exact playbook the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer followed with Cloud Computing in 2017. Run the Wood Memorial. Fail to win the Wood Memorial. Skip the Kentucky Derby. Go all-in on the Preakness.

The differences? Cloud Computing finished third in the Wood Memorial, then went off at 13/1. Early Voting finished a neck behind Mo Donegal. He was the 5.70/1 third choice, paying $13.40, $4.60 and $3.60. The $2 exacta with Epicenter paid $25.80. The $1 trifecta with 10/1 Creative Minister finishing third by 3 ½ lengths, paid $66.50.

Derby hangover produced oddities in Preakness odds

Seasoned horseplayers were dumbfounded by pre-race odds that made zero sense. Fenwick, the 50/1 morning-line long shot who finished last by 40 ½ lengths, left the gate at 13/1. Not long before the race, he was as low as 7/1. This makes him the clubhouse leader for biggest underlay in any stakes race this season. Happy Jack, he of the 30/1 morning-line odds, went off at 11/1. He finished eighth, 19 ¼ lengths back. By comparison, Creative Minister left the gate at 10/1.

It is HILARIOUS that Fenwick is 7-1 in the Preakness odds. The Rich Strike effect. You have better odds on Creative Minister, which is both good and amusing

— Katherine Terrell (@Kat_Terrell) May 21, 2022

Yes, call it the Rich Strike Syndrome. Casual horseplayers who don’t bet on races outside of the Triple Crown or perhaps the Breeder’s Cup saw Rich Strike win the Derby at 80/1. So they decided to pile in on the two longest shots in the field, hoping the universe would burp twice.

I’m sure they’ll change, but as of 5:30 those Preakness odds are the craziest thing I’ve ever seen.

— Dave Litfin (@DaveLitfin) May 21, 2022

As for Early Voting, he was the 7/2 morning-line second choice. His odds drifted to 5.70/1.

Brown: ‘Plans don’t work’

“You know how hard it is,�?Brown said after the race. “When you’re training horses, often times, plans don’t work. Things happen.�?/p>

In this case, what happened was just the way Brown drew it up for jockey Jose Ortiz. Go out with the leaders, but play follow-the-leader. Let someone else set the pace, then pounce when the opportunity presents.

And the opportunity presented itself when Armagnac not only seized the early lead, but did so via slow fractions. He covered the first quarter-mile in 24.32 seconds and the first half in 47.44. That gave Early Voting the target Brown and Ortiz needed.

Let someone else do the heavy running

“This horse, he’s better with a target,�?Brown said. “I think when we ran him in the Wood, he was waiting on horses when he got to the lane. It’s not because he can’t go that far. So I was hoping for a target, somebody would send. Given the way the track was playing all day, very speed favoring, I certainly wasn’t going to take him out of his game. So we were prepared to go to the lead. But when the other horse went to the front, Jose got a good position with a target in front of him. I felt very good on the backside.�?/p>

He felt better coming out of the far turn heading into the stretch. That’s when Ortiz turned Early Voting loose. By mid-stretch, he took a 3 ½-length lead and even as he weaved a bit sideways in deep stretch, Early Voting had enough to hold off Epicenter in deep stretch.

“I’ve been on him since he was a baby,�?an emotional Ortiz said after winning his first Preakness. “We always knew he was very talented, but we knew he was going to be a late developer. He’s always been very nice. We’ve always been very high on him.�?/p>

Early Voting did win a Derby prep

Early Voting covered the 1 3/16 miles in 1:54.54, giving the Gun Runner colt his third victory in four races. Earlier this winter, he won the Grade 3 Withers by 4 ½ lengths at Aqueduct. Between that and his Wood Memorial runner-up, Early Voting had plenty of points to run the Derby. But Brown didn’t like the scenario of Early Voting and his early speed getting drawn into the 20-horse Derby chaos. So he bypassed the first Saturday in May in favor of the third Saturday in May.

The champ is here! #EarlyVoting@jose93_ortiz �?pic.twitter.com/r4MSJCCCnV

— Preakness Stakes (@PreaknessStakes) May 21, 2022

Whether Early Voting run the second Saturday in June �?at the Belmont Stakes �?remains to be seen. But Brown relished in giving Klarman �?his biggest client and close friend �?a Triple Crown race as a 65^th birthday present.

“I don’t know about a mile and a half in three weeks, but we’ll take a look at it,�?Brown said. “I can tell you he’s going to Belmont (Park), so we’ll start there. But, to win this race on Seth’s birthday, three blocks from where he grew up (Pimlico), he’s one of my very best friends. To be able to deliver a gift like to someone, it’s hard to explain to people. On a personal level, very gratifying for me.�?/p>

Secret Oath, the 5/1 second choice, finished fourth by 6 ¼ lengths. She never got untracked, getting sucked back early to last in the nine-horse field trying to give D. Wayne Lukas his seventh Preakness. Skippylongstocking, Simplification, Armagnac, Happy Jack and Fenwick rounded out the order of finish.

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Rich Strike’s trainer, Eric Reed, said all along the June 11 Belmont was Rich Strike’s eventual target. That 1 1/2-mile race is more suited to his closing style and lack of front-end speed. But Rich Strike threw everything into flux when he pulled off the second-biggest Derby upset in event history, rallying from 15th place through three-quarters of a mile to win the Derby at 80/1.

Rick Dawson, Rich Strike’s owner, released a statement through the Maryland Jockey Club Thursday announcing his colt would follow that blueprint.

“Our original plan for Rich Strike was contingent on the Kentucky Derby. Should we not run in the Derby, we would point toward the Preakness (and) should we run in the Derby — subject to the race outcome and the condition of our horse — we would give him more recovery time and rest and run in the Belmont. Or another race, and stay on course to run with five or six weeks’ rest between races.”

Rich Strike won’t ‘alter course’

Dawson said altering Rich Strike’s course was “very tempting” after his Derby performance, but doing what’s best for the horse is more important. “After much discussion and consideration with my trainer, Eric Reed, and a few others, we are going to stay with our plan of what’s best for ‘Ritchie’ is what’s best for our group, and pass on running in the Preakness,” Dawson announced. He ended his statement by thanking Pimlico for the invite.

While it’s not common for Derby winners like Rich Strike to skip the Preakness, it’s not unheard of either. Three years ago, Country Strike won the Derby via Maximum Security’s disqualification. Due to various physical issues, he never ran again.

Gato Del Sol, Spend a Buck, Grindstone all passed on Preakness

Last year, Mandaloun passed on the Preakness and the Belmont after finishing second in the Derby. He was promoted to Derby winner nine months later after Medina Spirit failed a drug test.

Before Country House, you have to go back to 1996. Grindstone won that Derby, but suffered a knee fracture in the process and retired.

Go back 11 years from Grindstone and you encounter the case of Spend a Buck. He won the 1985 Derby, but instead of running the Preakness, his connections chased the almighty dollar — $2 million of them. They opted for running in New Jersey for that $2 million bonus in a series of races.

Likely the closest scenario to Rich Strike’s in recent history comes from 1982 Derby winner Gato Del Sol. His connections bypassed the Preakness for the more-suitable Belmont, where he finished second to Conquistador Cielo.

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